Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the lead up to the 2005 election by various organisations.
Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2005 election
Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.
Graphical summary
Individual polls
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | ACT | Green | United Future | Māori | Destiny | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 election result | 27 Jul 2002 | 41.26 | 20.93 | 10.38 | 7.14 | 7.00 | 6.69 | N/A[note 1] | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[1] | 1 Sep 2002 | 40 | 25 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||||
| TV3 NFO[2] | 16 – 22 Sep 2002 | 49 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 4.7 | ||||
| NBR-HP Invent[3] | 19 – 22 Sep 2002 | 44 | 22 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.9 | |||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[4] | 23 – 26 Sep 2002[5] | 47 | 26 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[6] | 27 Oct 2002 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||
| NBR-HP Invent[7] | 18 – 20 Oct 2002 | 47 | 24 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | ||||
| TV3 NFO[8] | 18 – 24 Nov 2002[9] | 50 | 19 | 10 | 4.8 | 8 | 5 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[10] | 18 Nov 2002 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2.9 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[11] | 15 Dec 2002 | 52 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[12] | 3 Feb 2003 | 49.6 | 22.9 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | ||||
| TV3 NFO[13] | 10 – 16 Feb 2003 | 56 | 21 | 6 | 4.2 | 6 | 3.6 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[14] | 17 Feb 2003 | 53 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[15] | 23 Mar 2003 | 51 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2.9 | ||||
| TV3 NFO[16] | 7 – 13 Apr 2003 | 53 | 26 | 5 | 4.9 | 6 | 2.4 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[17] | 13 Apr 2003 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[18] | 15–18 May 2003 | 49.4 | 28 | 8 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[19] | 12 – 15 May 2003 | 50 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| TV3 NFO[20] | 9 – 16 Jun 2003[21] | 52 | 24 | 8 | 4.5 | 6 | 2.9 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[22] | 16 Jun 2003 | 54 | 28 | 4 | |||||||
| 13 Jun 2003 – Destiny New Zealand is formed.[23] | |||||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll | Jul 2003 | 48.2 | 27.2 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[24] | 13 Jul 2003 | 51 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1.1 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[25] | 12 – 17 Aug 2003 | 47.7 | 26.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 5 | 4.2 | ||||
| TV3 NFO[26] | 12 Aug 2003 | 52 | 23 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 2.7 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[27] | 17 Aug 2003 | 47 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2.6 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[28] | 15 Sep 2003 | 45 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 3.4 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[29] | 15 Oct 2003 | 43.3 | 22.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 2.7 | ||||
| TV3 NFO[30] | 6 Oct 2003 | 46 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 2.9 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[31] | 14 Oct 2003 | 45 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2.8 | ||||
| 28 Oct 2003 – Don Brash is elected leader of the National Party. | |||||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[32] | 9 Nov 2003 | 45 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2.2 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[33] | 14 Dec 2003 | 45 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2.1 | ||||
| 27 Jan 2004 – Don Brash delivers his Orewa Speech. | |||||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[34] | 23 Feb 2004 | 37 | 45.5 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | ||||
| 3 News TNS[35] | 5 Feb 2004 | 43 | 32 | 8 | 4.2 | 8 | 2.4 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[36] | 29 Jan – 4 Feb 2004[37] | 38 | 45 | 6 | 1.3 | 5 | 1.8 | ||||
| 3 News TNS[37] | 27 – 29 Feb 2004 | 39 | 42 | 6 | 2.4 | 6 | 0.9 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[38] | 22 Mar 2004 | 39 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | ||||
| 3 News TNS[39] | 25 – 31 Mar 2004 | 42 | 42 | 5 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[40] | 25 Apr 2004 | 37 | 48 | 5 | 1.6 | 5 | 1.9 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[41] | 17 – 20 May 2004[42] | 37 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1.4 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[43] | 27 May – 1 Jun 2004 | 36 | 44 | 5.6 | 2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | ||||
| 3 News TNS[44] | 27 May – 3 Jun 2004[45] | 43 | 40 | 5 | 2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | ||||
| 13 Jun 2004 – Rodney Hide replaces Richard Prebble as leader of ACT New Zealand. | |||||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[42] | 21 Jun 2004 | 40 | 44 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 5 | 2.2 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[46] | 5 – 8 Jul 2004 | 39 | 43 | 5 | 2.7 | 4 | 2.2 | ||||
| 7 Jul 2004 – The Māori Party is formed. | |||||||||||
| 3 News TNS[47] | 31 Jul 2004 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | |||
| Sunday Star-Times/BRC[47] | 1 Aug 2004 | 44 | 39 | 3 | 3 | ||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[48] | 9 – 12 Aug 2004 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 1.6 | 4 | 1.5 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[49] | 13 Sep 2004 | 42 | 42 | 5 | 2.5 | 4 | 1.7 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[50] | 28 Sep 2004 | 40.8 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | |||
| 3 News TNS[51] | 30 Sep – 6 Oct 2004 | 45 | 33 | 5 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[52] | 14 Oct 2004 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 3.1 | 4 | 2.2 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[53] | 15 Nov 2004 | 44 | 38 | 5 | 3.3 | 4 | 2.5 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[54] | 19 – 27 Nov 2004 | 50.1 | 30.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | |||
| 3 News TNS[55] | 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2004 | 46 | 32 | 7 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[56] | 13 Dec 2004 | 47 | 35 | 5 | 2.8 | 5 | 1.4 | ||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[57] | 1 Feb 2005 | 44.8 | 35.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 3 | 1.5 | |||
| 3 News TNS[58] | 4 Feb 2005 | 46 | 38 | 5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[59] | 14 Feb 2005 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[60] | 14 – 17 Mar 2005 | 46 | 35 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Herald-DigiPoll[61] | 22 – 30 Mar 2005 | 47.7 | 34.5 | ||||||||
| 3 News TNS[62] | 15 Apr 2005 | 45 | 34 | 8 | |||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[63] | 17 Apr 2005 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[64] | 16 May 2005 | 44 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |||
| 3 News TNS[65] | 9 – 16 Jun 2005 | 40 | 36 | 11 | 1.5 | 6 | |||||
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen[66] | 18 Jun 2005 | 40 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[67] | 19 Jun 2005 | 41 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[68] | 18 Jul 2005 | 39 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | |||
| 3 News TNS[69] | 21 – 27 Jul 2005 | 39 | 39 | 7 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research[70] | 21 Jul – 1 Aug 2005 | 38 | 38 | 10 | 1.5 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[71] | 1–4 Aug 2005 | 45 | 41 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Roy Morgan Research[70] | 2–15 Aug 2005 | 40 | 36.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 2 | ||||
| One News Colmar Brunton[72] | 15–18 Aug 2005 | 45 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[73] | 22–25 Aug 2005 | 43 | 40 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 3 News TNS[74] | 25 – 30 Aug 2005 | 39 | 41 | 6 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[75] | 29 Aug – 1 Sep 2005 | 38 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Roy Morgan Research[76] | 3 – 13 Sep 2005 | 38.5 | 37 | 6.5 | 3 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[77] | 5–8 Sep 2005 | 39 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 3 News TNS[78] | 8 – 14 Sep 2005 | 40.5 | 38.7 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | |||
| Herald-DigiPoll | 9 – 14 Sep 2005 | 44.6 | 37.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[78] | 12 – 14 Sep 2005 | 38 | 44 | 6 | 1.9 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | |||
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen | 13 Sep 2005 | 37 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2005 election result | 17 Sep 2005 | 41.1 | 39.1 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | ||
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | ACT | Green | United Future | Māori | Destiny | ||
See also
References
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