A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027.
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All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.[3] No Executive was formed by this deadline,[4] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.[5][6] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed.[7][8] On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive,[9] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[10]
This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson,[11] Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Doug Beattie, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Colum Eastwood, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, in addition to People Before Profit (PBP), who have a collective leadership.
Background
Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[12] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.
After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.[13] No government was formed by the deadline.[14] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline,[15] the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022.[16][17][18] The new deadline also passed with no resolution.[15][19][20] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.[21][22]
On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.[23] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.[24] However, the DUP boycott continued.[25] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2024.[26][27][28]
On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein.[29] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.
Opinion polling
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | SF N | DUP U | APNI O | UUP U | SDLP N | TUV U | Green O | Aontú N | PBP O | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,021 | 29% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
| 29 Mar 2024 | Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party | |||||||||||||
| 9–12 Feb 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 31% | 24% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 7% |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Establishment of the new executive | |||||||||||||
| 27–30 Oct 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,046 | 31% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey | ARK | 1,200 | 19% | 15% | 22% | 10% | 7% | – | 4% | – | – | 22% None of these on 10% I don't know on 8% Other party on 3% Other answer on 1% | 3% |
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 31% | 26% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| 18 May 2023 | 2023 local elections | – | 30.9% | 23.3% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 5.4% NI Conservatives on 0.1% | 7.6% | |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,557 | 29% | 25% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| 3–14 Mar 2023 | Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | N/A | 30.6% | 23.9% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% NI Conservatives on 1.3% | 6.7% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,499 | 31% | 25% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 32% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 30% | 24% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| 28 Jun – 10 Jul 2022 | Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | 1,000 | 30.9% | 20.1% | 15.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 10.8% |
| 5 May 2022 | 2022 Assembly election | – | 29.0% | 21.3% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.8% NI Conservatives on 0.03% | 7.7% | |
Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen to designate themselves, Unionist (U), Nationalist (N) or other (O), in the Assembly previously (or, in the case of Aontú, how they are expected to designate if they win a seat). This is a function of the Assembly's consociational design.
Leadership approval ratings
Michelle O'Neill
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 43% | 37% | 20% | +6% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 41% | 37% | 22% | +4% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 41% | 40% | 19% | +4% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 40% | 42% | 18% | –2% |
Jeffrey Donaldson
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 24% | 66% | 10% | –42% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 65% | 8% | –38% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 25% | 63% | 12% | –38% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 29% | 65% | 6% | –36% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 27% | 64% | 9% | –37% |
Naomi Long
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 38% | 39% | 23% | –1% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 40% | 38% | 22% | +2% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 37% | 38% | 25% | –1% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 45% | 37% | 18% | +8% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
Doug Beattie
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 34% | 38% | 28% | –4% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 38% | 33% | 29% | +5% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 28% | 42% | 30% | –14% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 37% | 32% | 31% | +5% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 34% | 32% | 0% |
Colum Eastwood
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 26% | 43% | 31% | –17% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 32% | 40% | 28% | –8% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 33% | 38% | 29% | –5% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 31% | 39% | 30% | –8% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 39% | 27% | –5% |
Jim Allister
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 23% | 63% | 14% | –40% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 61% | 12% | –34% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 27% | 57% | 16% | –30% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 27% | 59% | 14% | –32% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 31% | 54% | 15% | –23% |