The 2010 Idaho gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter won re-election, defeating his Democratic opponent Keith G. Allred.
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 County results Otter: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Allred: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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A former Lieutenant Governor and U.S. Representative, Otter won an open seat race in 2006 against Democratic Party nominee Jerry Brady with 52.67% of the vote.
Republican primary
Candidates
- Walt Bayes, perennial candidate
- Fred Nichols
- Butch Otter, Governor of Idaho[1]
- Pete Peterson (endorsed independent candidate Jana Kemp, but still filed for the primary[2])
- Rex Rammell, veterinarian, conservative activist and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008[3]
- Sharon Ullman, Ada County Commissioner[4]
- Tamara Wells
Campaign
Both Rammell and Ullman sought support from followers of the Tea Party movement by criticizing Otter's 2009 attempt to raise Idaho's gas tax.[5]
In August 2009, Rammell drew criticism for joking about buying a license to hunt President Barack Obama.[6]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Walt Bayes | Butch Otter | Ron"Pete" Peterson | Rex Rammell | Sharon Ullman | Tamara Wells | Un- decided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon (report) | May 17–19, 2010 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 1% | 60% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Butch Otter (incumbent) | 89,117 | 54.6 | |
| Republican | Rex Rammell | 42,436 | 26.0 | |
| Republican | Sharon Ullman | 13,749 | 8.4 | |
| Republican | Pete Peterson | 8,402 | 5.2 | |
| Republican | Walt Bayes | 4,825 | 3.0 | |
| Republican | Tamara Wells | 4,544 | 2.8 | |
| Republican | Fred Nichols | 38 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 163,111 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Declined
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Keith Allred | 22,386 | 81.7 | |
| Democratic | Lee Chaney | 5,026 | 18.3 | |
| Total votes | 27,412 | 100 | ||
Third party candidates
Libertarian Party
- Ted Dunlap
Independents
- Jana Kemp, former Republican State Representative[2]
- Pro-Life (formerly known as Marvin Richardson), organic strawberry farmer, Constitution Party nominee for governor in 2006 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008[11]
General election
Campaign
Between January 1 and May 9, 2010, Allred led Otter in fundraising, having raised $241,000 to Otter's $193,000. Allred said, "We are picking up momentum and are right where we want to be." However, Otter limited his fundraising activity while the Idaho Legislature was in session.[12]
Allred has criticized Otter for backing cuts to public education spending, which led the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry to launch a website attacking Allred.[5]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[13] | Safe R | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[14] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[15] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely R | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[17] | Likely R | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Butch Otter (R) | Keith Allred (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | August 31, 2010 | 52% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 15, 2010 | 53% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 11, 2010 | 54% | 32% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 23, 2010 | 60% | 28% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Butch Otter (incumbent) | 267,483 | 59.11% | +6.44% | |
| Democratic | Keith G. Allred | 148,680 | 32.85% | −11.25% | |
| Independent | Jana M. Kemp | 26,655 | 5.89% | ||
| Libertarian | Ted Dunlap | 5,867 | 1.30% | −0.31% | |
| Independent | Pro-Life | 3,850 | 0.85% | −0.77% | |
| Majority | 118,803 | 26.25% | +17.69% | ||
| Turnout | 452,535 | ||||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
References
External links
- Idaho Office of Elections[permanent dead link]
- Idaho Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Idaho Governor from Follow the Money
- Idaho Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- 2010 Idaho Gubernatorial General Election graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Idaho Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Idaho Governor Race: Otter vs. Allred from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Idaho Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
- Official campaign websites (Archived)