The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois.
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   Salvi: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Duckworth was re-elected for a second term against former U.S. House of Representatives candidate Kathy Salvi, the Republican nominee, winning by a margin of 15.3%, 0.2% more than her 2016 margin. Duckworth became the first woman ever to be re-elected for a second term in the state's history. This was the first Illinois U.S. Senate election where both major party candidates were female.
Salvi flipped seven counties—Calhoun, McDonough, Knox, Gallatin, Pulaski, Alexander, and Madison—that had voted for Duckworth in 2016. On the other hand, Duckworth won Kendall, McLean, Peoria, and Winnebago, which had all voted against her in 2016. With Duckworth's victory, this was the first time since 1986 that a Class 3 Illinois senator was re-elected to a successive six-year term, and the first time since 1992 that any party won the seat consecutively.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tammy Duckworth, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Endorsements
Tammy Duckworth
- Organizations
- EMILY's List[2]
- End Citizens United[3]
- Feminist Majority PAC[4]
- Giffords[5]
- Illinois AFL–CIO[6]
- Illinois National Organization for Women[7]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150[8]
- Jewish Dems[9]
- League of Conservation Voters[10]
- Let America Vote[3]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[13]
- Population Connection Action Fund[14]
- Women's Political Committee[15]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) | 856,720 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 856,720 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Kathy Salvi, attorney, former assistant public defender in Lake County,[18] and candidate for Illinois's 8th congressional district in 2006[19]
Eliminated in primary
- Casey Chlebek, real estate agent[20]
- Matthew Dubiel, owner of WCKG[17][21]
- Peggy Hubbard, former police officer, U.S. Navy veteran, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[22]
- Bobby Piton, investor and activist[23]
- Jimmy Lee Tillman, founder of New Martin Luther King Republicans, son of former Chicago alderman Dorothy Tillman, and nominee for Illinois's 1st congressional district in 2014 and 2018[24][25]
- Anthony Williams[24]
Disqualified
Declined
- Tom Demmer, state representative (ran for Illinois Treasurer)[28][29]
- Adam Kinzinger, U.S. Representative for Illinois's 16th congressional district[30][31]
Endorsements
Bobby Piton
- Individuals
- Michael Flynn, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) and former Director of the DIA (2012–2014) (Democratic)[32][better source needed]
Kathy Salvi
- State legislators
- Jeanne Ives, former state representative from the 42nd district (2013–2019)[33]
- Newspapers
- Chicago Tribune (Republican primary only)[18]
- Daily Herald[34]
- Organizations
- Barrington Township Republican Organization[35]
- Bremen Township Republican Organization[36]
- Evanston Township GOP[35]
- Homer Township Republicans[35]
- Illinois Citizens for Life[35]
- Illinois Family Action[37]
- Illinois Federation for Right to Life[35]
- Lake County Republican Party[38]
- McHenry County GOPAC[35]
- McHenry County ProLife Victory PAC[35]
- New Trier GOP[39]
- Niles Township Republicans[35]
- Northfield Township Republican Organization[35]
- Republicans of Wheeling Township[40]
- Sangamon County GOP[41]
- Schaumburg Township Republican Organization[42]
- Winfield Township Republicans[35]
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Casey Chlebek | Matthew Dubiel | Peggy Hubbard | Bobby Piton | Kathy Salvi | Jimmy Lee Tillman | Anthony Williams | Other [a] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | June 6–13, 2022 | June 15, 2022 | 3.5% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 57.0% | Hubbard +1.5 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Casey Chlebek | Matthew Dubiel | Peggy Hubbard | Maryann Mahlen | Bobby Piton | Kathy Salvi | Jimmy Lee Tillman | Anthony Williams | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogden & Fry (R) | June 24, 2022 | 518 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 1% | 6% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 53% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 6% | 4% | 18% | – | 6% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 49% |
| Ogden & Fry (R) | June 11–12, 2022 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 17% | 1% | 1% | 62% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 6–7, 2022 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 1% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 66% |
| Emerson College | May 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 4% | 4% | 7% | – | 6% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 72% |
Results
Salvi
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Hubbard
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Dubiel
- 20–30%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kathy Salvi | 216,007 | 30.23% | |
| Republican | Peggy Hubbard | 177,180 | 24.79% | |
| Republican | Matthew "Matt" Dubiel | 90,538 | 12.67% | |
| Republican | Casey Chlebek | 76,213 | 10.66% | |
| Republican | Robert "Bobby" Piton | 65,461 | 9.16% | |
| Republican | Anthony W. Williams | 52,890 | 7.40% | |
| Republican | Jimmy Lee Tillman II | 36,342 | 5.09% | |
| Total votes | 714,631 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[43] | Solid D | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[44] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Safe D | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[46] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[47] | Likely D | October 26, 2022 |
| Fox News[48] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[49] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[50] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[51] | Safe D | September 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Tammy Duckworth (D)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Joe Biden, President of the United States (2021–present)[52]
- Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present)[53]
- U.S. Senators
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997–present) and Senate Majority Whip (2021–present)[54]
- Labor Unions
- Organizations
- EMILY's List[2]
- End Citizens United[3]
- Feminist Majority PAC[4]
- Giffords[5]
- Illinois AFL–CIO[6]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150[8]
- Jewish Dems[9]
- League of Conservation Voters[10]
- Let America Vote[3]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[13]
- Population Connection Action Fund[14]
- Sierra Club[56]
- VoteVets.org[57]
- Women's Political Committee[15]
- Newspapers
Kathy Salvi (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Mike Pompeo, 70th United States Secretary of State (2018–2021) and 6th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018)[35]
- State legislators
- Jeanne Ives, former state representative from the 42nd district (2013–2019)[33]
- Local officials
- Richard Irvin, mayor of Aurora[60]
- Newspapers
- The Arab Daily News[35]
- Organizations
- Barrington Township Republican Organization[35]
- Bremen Township Republican Organization[61]
- Evanston Township GOP[35]
- Homer Township Republicans[35]
- Huck PAC[62]
- Illinois Citizens for Life[35]
- Illinois Family Action[37]
- Illinois Federation for Right to Life[35]
- Illinois Fraternal Order of Police[35]
- Lake County Republican Party[38]
- McHenry County GOPAC[35]
- McHenry County ProLife Victory PAC[35]
- Moms for America Action[35]
- New Trier GOP[39]
- Niles Township Republicans[35]
- Northfield Township Republican Organization[35]
- Republicans of Wheeling Township[40]
- Sangamon County GOP[41]
- Schaumburg Township Republican Organization[42]
- United Hellenic Voters of America[35]
- Winfield Township Republicans[35]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Tammy Duckworth (D) | Kathy Salvi (R) | Undecided [c] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | August 25 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 55.5% | 40.2% | 4.3% | Duckworth +15.3 |
| 270towin | October 14 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 51.6% | 36.4% | 12.0% | Duckworth +15.2 |
| Average | 53.6% | 38.3% | 8.1% | Duckworth +15.3 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Tammy Duckworth (D) | Kathy Salvi (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 38% | 2%[d] | 5% |
| Civiqs | October 22–25, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 56% | 40% | 2%[e] | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 3%[f] | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 10–11, 2022 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 5%[g] | 9% |
| Research America | October 5–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 29% | 10%[h] | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 31% | 4%[i] | 16% |
| Victory Geek (D) | August 25–28, 2022 | 512 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 35% | – | 7% |
| Victory Research (R) | July 17–19, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 34% | 2%[j] | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
- Tammy Duckworth vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Tammy Duckworth (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research (R) | July 17–19, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 36% | 20% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) | 2,329,136 | 56.82% | +1.96% | |
| Republican | Kathy Salvi | 1,701,055 | 41.50% | +1.72% | |
| Libertarian | Bill Redpath | 68,671 | 1.68% | -1.53% | |
| Write-in | 34 | 0.0% | -0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 4,098,896 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Alexander (largest city: Cairo)
- Calhoun (largest city: Hardin)
- Gallatin (largest city: Shawneetown)
- Knox (largest city: Galesburg)
- Madison (largest city: Granite City)
- McDonough (largest city: Macomb)
- Pulaski (largest city: Mounds)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Kendall (largest city: Oswego)
- McLean (largest city: Bloomington)
- Peoria (largest city: Peoria)
- Winnebago (largest city: Rockford)
By congressional district
Duckworth won 14 of 17 congressional districts.[64]
| District | Duckworth | Salvi | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69.1% | 29.6% | Bobby Rush (117th Congress) |
| Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 68.9% | 29.7% | Robin Kelly |
| 3rd | 68.9% | 29.5% | Marie Newman (117th Congress) |
| Delia Ramirez (118th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 69.9% | 28.3% | Chuy García |
| 5th | 70.4% | 28.2% | Mike Quigley |
| 6th | 55.3% | 43.1% | Sean Casten |
| 7th | 86% | 12.6% | Danny Davis |
| 8th | 56.3% | 42.1% | Raja Krishnamoorthi |
| 9th | 71.6% | 27% | Jan Schakowsky |
| 10th | 61.6% | 36.9% | Brad Schneider |
| 11th | 55.6% | 42.6% | Bill Foster |
| 12th | 29.4% | 68.7% | Mike Bost |
| 13th | 55.9% | 41.9% | Nikki Budzinski |
| 14th | 54.2% | 44% | Lauren Underwood |
| 15th | 32.2% | 65.6% | Mary Miller |
| 16th | 38.3% | 59.8% | Darin LaHood |
| 17th | 51.9% | 46.1% | Cheri Bustos (117th Congress) |
| Eric Sorensen (118th Congress) |
See also
Notes
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
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