The next election to the Hamburg Parliament is scheduled for 2025.
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All 123 seats in the Hamburg Parliament 62 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
In 2020, the SPD came first, losing four seats but coming ahead of the Greens by a large margin. The Greens almost doubled their share of the vote. The CDU achieved its worst ever result in a Hamburg general election, with 11.2 percent, while the left took 9.1 percent, its best. The AfD just managed to get back in with 5.3 percent of the votes.
The FDP, on the other hand, fell just short of the five percent hurdle with 4.96 percent and missed out on entering parliament for the first time since 2008. However, because of a direct mandate from its top candidate, Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein, in the Blankenese constituency, the FDP is represented by a non-attached member of parliament.
The Second Tschentscher senate was formed as a Red-Green coalition.[1]
Opinion polls
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SPD | Grüne | CDU | Linke | AfD | FDP | BSW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wahlkreisprognose | 15–25 Apr 2024 | 1,304 | 32 | 21.5 | 18 | 6 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 1–5 Feb 2024 | 1,164 | 30 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 5 | – | 8 | 9 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 17–24 Oct 2023 | 1,068 | 31 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 4 | – | 4 | 12 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Sep–2 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 24.5 | 21.5 | 21 | 8.5 | 13 | 3 | – | 8.5 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–16 Sep 2022 | 950 | 32 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 6 | – | 5 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24–29 Jan 2022 | 1,000 | 40 | 26.5 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 7 | – | 5.5 | 13.5 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 29.7 | 24.9 | 15.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 11.4 | – | 6.9 | 4.8 |
| pmg – policy matters | 2–11 Jun 2020 | 1,020 | 37 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 5 | – | 4 | 14 |
| 2020 state election | 23 Feb 2020 | – | 39.2 | 24.2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | – | 6.1 | 15.0 |