The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Primary elections will take place on August 13, 2024.[1]
 | |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
.jpg)
Incumbent two-term Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected with 55.4% of the vote in 2018. She announced she would be running for re-election on April 12, 2023.[2]
Background
No Republican has won this Class 1 senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.[3][4]
The race is considered to be slightly favorable to Baldwin, despite Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean, with most polls showing Baldwin to be the favorite to win.
Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other senate seat. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.[5][6]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Presumptive nominee
- Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. senator[7]
Endorsements
Tammy Baldwin
- U.S. representatives
- Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[8]
- Governors
- Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019–present)[9]
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[10]
- Labor unions
- Association of Flight Attendants[11]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 2150[12]
- United Auto Workers[13]
- United Steelworkers District 7[14]
- Wisconsin AFL-CIO[12]
- Organizations
- 314 Action[15]
- Bend the Arc[16]
- Council for a Livable World[17]
- EMILY's List[2]
- End Citizens United[18]
- Fair Wisconsin PAC[19]
- Feminist Majority PAC[20]
- Giffords[8]
- Human Rights Campaign[21]
- J Street PAC[22]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[23]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[24]
- League of Conservation Voters[25]
- Let America Vote[18]
- LGBTQ Victory Fund[26]
- LPAC[27]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[28]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[29]
- National Women's Political Caucus[30]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[31]
- NextGen America PAC[10]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[32]
- Population Connection Action Fund[33]
- Stonewall Democratic Club[34]
- Swing Left[35]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tammy Baldwin (D) | $26,376,466 | $16,260,334 | $10,251,350 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[36] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | |||
| Write-in | ||||
| Total votes | ||||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Charles Barman[37]
- Eric Hovde, bank owner and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012[38]
- Rejani Raveendran, chair of University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point College Republicans[39]
Withdrew
- Stacey Klein, Trempealeau County supervisor[40] (running for state senate)[41]
- Patrick Schaefer-Wicke, retired U.S. Army Reserve sergeant major[40]
Declined
- Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2017–2024)[42]
- Scott Mayer, staffing executive and former Indy Racing League driver[43]
- Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[44] (running for re-election, endorsed Hovde)[45][46]
- Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2020–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Hovde)[47][46]
- Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)[48] (endorsed Hovde)[49]
Endorsements
Eric Hovde
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)[50]
- U.S. representatives
- Scott Fitzgerald, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 5th congressional district (2021–present)[46]
- Glenn Grothman, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 6th congressional district (2015–present)[46]
- Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[46]
- Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2020–present)[46]
- Derrick Van Orden, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district (2023–present)[46]
- Statewide officials
- Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)[49]
- Organizations
Declined to endorse
- U.S. senators
- Ron Johnson, U.S. senator from Wisconsin (2011–present)[55]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Eric Hovde (R) | $9,069,811[a] | $3,720,299 | $5,349,511 |
| Rejani Raveendran (R) | $11,063 | $10,948 | $114 |
| Stacey Klein (R)[b] | $33,712 | $33,712 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[56] | |||
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | David Clarke | Mike Gallagher | Eric Hovde | Scott Mayer | Tom Tiffany | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 11–12, 2023 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | – | 7% | 6% | – | 36% |
| 51% | – | 10% | – | – | 39% | ||||
| 52% | – | – | 6% | – | 42% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 5–6, 2023 | 507 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 20% | 3% | – | 10% | 27% |
| 45% | 26% | – | – | – | 29% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Charles Barman | |||
| Republican | Eric Hovde | |||
| Republican | Rejani Raveendran | |||
| Write-in | ||||
| Total votes | ||||
Other parties and independent campaigns
Candidates
Approved for ballot
- Phil Anderson, realtor, former chair of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party, and perennial candidate (Disrupt The Corruption)[57][58]
- Thomas Leager (America First)[58]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Phil Anderson (L) | $16,318 | $12,477 | $3,840 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[36] | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[59] | Lean D | April 9, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[60] | Lean D | July 28, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[61] | Lean D | January 24, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[62] | Lean D | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[63] | Lean D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[64] | Lean D | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Eric Hovde (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
| 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 47% | – | ||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 40% | 11% | ||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 47% | – | ||
| Emerson College[A] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 43% | 38% | 19%[d] |
| 290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 47% | 39% | 14%[e] | ||
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 42% | 4% |
| Emerson College/The Hill | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,245 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Marquette University Law School | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 47% | 1% |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 50% | – | ||
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | 14% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
- Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Mike Gallagher (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[B] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[B] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
- Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[B] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | ||||
| Republican | TBD | ||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
🔥 Top keywords: Main PageSpecial:SearchPage 3Wikipedia:Featured picturesHouse of the DragonUEFA Euro 2024Bryson DeChambeauJuneteenthInside Out 2Eid al-AdhaCleopatraDeaths in 2024Merrily We Roll Along (musical)Jonathan GroffJude Bellingham.xxx77th Tony AwardsBridgertonGary PlauchéKylian MbappéDaniel RadcliffeUEFA European Championship2024 ICC Men's T20 World CupUnit 731The Boys (TV series)Rory McIlroyN'Golo KantéUEFA Euro 2020YouTubeRomelu LukakuOpinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general electionThe Boys season 4Romania national football teamNicola CoughlanStereophonic (play)Gene WilderErin DarkeAntoine GriezmannProject 2025