2023 Navarrese regional election

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.^[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.^[3]

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.^[4]

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the BON no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 25 June 2023.^[1][4][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[1]

The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the BON, setting the election date for 28 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 16 June.^[6]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.^[7]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[4][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	UPN	List Navarrese People's Union (UPN)		Javier Esparza	Conservatism Christian democracy Regionalism	36.57%[c]	20	N	[8] [9] [10]
	CS	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)		Carlos Pérez-Nievas	Liberalism			N	[11]
	PP	List People's Party (PP) Navarre Platform (PN)		Javier García	Conservatism Christian democracy			N	[12] [13] [14]
	PSN–PSOE	List Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)		María Chivite	Social democracy	20.63%	11	Y	[15] [16]
	GBai	List Future Social Greens (GSB/GSV) Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) Villava Group (AT)		Uxue Barkos	Basque nationalism Social democracy	17.32%	9	Y	[17]
	EH Bildu	List Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) – Create (Sortu) – Basque Solidarity (EA) – Alternative (Alternatiba)		Laura Aznal	Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism	14.54%	7	N	[18] [19]
	Contigo/ Zurekin	List We Can (Podemos) United Left of Navarre (IUN/NEB) – Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Assembly (Batzarre) Green Alliance (AV) Greens Equo (Verdes Equo)		Begoña Alfaro	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	8.21%[b]	3	Y	[20][21] [22][23] [24]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Maite Nosti	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	1.31%	0	N	[25]

There was debate on whether the Navarra Suma (NA+) alliance between the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) and the People's Party (PP) would be renewed ahead of the 2023 election,^[26] with some members within UPN advocating for their party to run under their own label instead while at most allowing some members from PP and Cs to be incorporated as independents within their lists.^[27][28]

UPN suffered a split following a troubling vote in the Congress of Deputies on the issue of labour reform on 3 February 2022, when deputies Sergio Sayas and Carlos García Adanero broke party discipline and voted against the reform proposed by Pedro Sánchez's government, almost succeeding in bringing it down despite the UPN leadership having pledged its support to the law.^[29] As a result, both Sayas and Adanero had their party membership suspended,^[30][31] who then pledged to run on their own under a brand new platform.^[32][33] This was materialized during an event held on 14 June 2022, when the platform—provisionally dubbed as "Navarre Platform" (Spanish: Plataforma Navarra)^[34]—was publicly announced, with the support of former high-ranking UPN officers such as former regional Development minister Luis Zarraluqui or former mayor of Estella Begoña Ganuza, among others.^[35][36][37] By the end of 2022, this platform had entered talks with the PP to evaluate the prospects of fielding a joint list to the regional election.^[38][39]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout											C/Z	PN	Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	64.4	–	20.7 11	13.2 7	17.1 9	[f]	[f]	4.3 2	28.0 15	7.3 3	0.4 0	6.1 3	[g]	7.3
Sigma Dos/EiTB[p 1]	22–27 May 2023	1,600	?	–	19.6 10/11	16.0 8/9	16.3 9	[f]	[f]	4.9 2	23.3 12/13	9.8 5	–	7.1 3/4	[g]	3.7
NC Report/La Razón[p 2]	22 May 2023	?	?	–	18.9 10	15.7 8	15.6 8	[f]	[f]	3.8 2	24.5 13	10.6 5	–	7.9 4	[g]	5.6
KeyData/Público[p 3]	17 May 2023	?	69.7	–	19.5 10	16.7 9	16.0 8	[f]	[f]	4.1 2	25.7 14	8.9 4	–	6.3 3	[g]	6.2
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 4][p 5]	11–17 May 2023	600	?	–	19.4 10	15.0 8	15.8 8	[f]	[f]	3.2 1	31.3 17	6.6 3	1.6 0	6.3 3	[g]	11.9
Simple Lógica/Cadena SER[p 6]	3–12 May 2023	1,202	?	–	24.0 13	14.5 8	15.5 8	[f]	[f]	3.0 0/1	24.0 13	7.0 3/4	1.5 0	8.0 4	[g]	Tie
Sigma Dos/EiTB[p 7][p 8]	3–11 May 2023	1,358	?	–	21.8 11/12	14.6 7/8	16.2 8/9	[f]	[f]	3.7 1/2	23.8 12/13	10.1 5	1.5 0	7.2 3/4	[g]	2.0
CIES/Diario de Navarra[p 9]	2–11 May 2023	1,200	?	–	20.1 10/11	15.4 7/8	16.8 8/9	[f]	[f]	4.3 2	27.2 14/15	9.5 5	1.4 0	4.9 2	[g]	7.1
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 10][p 11]	4–10 May 2023	600	?	–	19.4 10	15.1 8	16.0 8	[f]	[f]	3.2 1	31.2 17	6.5 3	1.6 0	6.3 3	[g]	11.8
Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 12]	8–9 May 2023	900	71	–	20.0 10	19.0 10	16.3 9	[f]	[f]	3.1 1	23.2 12	10.6 5	–	6.1 3	[g]	3.2
Demométrica/Navarra TV[p 13][p 14]	3–9 May 2023	1,200	74.6	–	20.1 11	15.4 7/8	15.9 8/9	[f]	[f]	3.9 1/2	24.5 13	10.6 5/6	1.1 0	6.5 3	[g]	4.4
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 15][p 16]	26 Apr–3 May 2023	600	?	–	19.3 10	15.2 8	16.1 8	[f]	[f]	3.3 1	30.9 17	7.0 3	1.2 0	6.3 3	[g]	11.6
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es[p 17]	18–26 Apr 2023	451	71.0	–	20.1 10/11	15.6 8/9	16.7 9	[f]	[f]	3.3 1/2	21.8 11/12	11.9 6	2.0 0	6.6 3	[g]	1.7
CIS[p 18][p 19]	10–26 Apr 2023	507	?	–	18.8 9/12	16.6 8/10	15.9 8/10	[f]	[f]	5.0 2/3	21.5 10/13	10.8 5/6	0.8 0	6.3 2/4	[g]	2.7
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 20][p 21]	19–25 Apr 2023	600	?	–	19.3 10	15.4 8	16.1 8	[f]	[f]	3.3 1	30.6 17	7.0 3	1.2 0	6.4 3	[g]	11.3
Aztiker/Gara[p 22][p 23]	11–25 Apr 2023	500	?	–	18.7 10	15.6 8	16.0 8	[f]	[f]	4.0 2	27.5 15	6.5 3	–	9.1 4	[g]	8.8
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 24][p 25]	12–18 Apr 2023	600	?	–	19.5 10	15.2 8	16.0 8	[f]	[f]	3.5 1	31.0 17	6.4 3	1.3 0	6.6 3	[g]	11.5
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 26][p 27]	5–11 Apr 2023	600	?	–	20.1 10	14.7 8	16.0 8	[f]	[f]	3.7 2	31.6 17	5.4 2	1.4 0	6.7 3	[g]	11.5
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 28][p 29]	27 Mar–4 Apr 2023	600	?	–	20.2 10	14.9 8	15.8 8	[f]	[f]	3.7 2	31.4 17	5.3 2	1.5 0	6.6 3	[g]	11.2
KeyData/Público[p 30]	3 Apr 2023	?	69.1	–	18.2 10	16.9 9	15.5 8	[f]	[f]	3.1 1	27.5 15	8.3 4	–	6.5 3	[g]	9.3
Simple Lógica/PSN[p 31]	13–17 Mar 2023	813	?	–	23.0 12/13	14.0 7	16.0 8	[f]	[f]	3.0 1/2	25.0 13/14	9.0 4/5	1.0 0	6.0 3	[g]	2.0
NC Report/La Razón[p 32]	3–10 Mar 2023	?	69.2	–	15.1 8	17.1 9	14.2 7	[f]	[f]	3.1 1	28.8 16	9.4 5	–	8.3 4	[g]	11.7
GAD3/EiTB[p 33][p 34]	22–27 Feb 2023	1,204	?	–	18.9 10/11	16.7 8/9	15.1 8	[f]	[f]	4.4 2	23.1 12	11.9 6	–	6.3 3	[g]	4.2
Aztiker/Gara[p 35][p 36]	14–25 Feb 2023	500	?	–	18.5 10	16.0 8	16.1 8	[f]	[f]	3.9 2	27.5 15	7.1 3	–	8.2 4	[g]	9.0
Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 37]	7–10 Feb 2023	1,200	?	–	21.2 11/12	18.4 9/10	17.0 9	[f]	[f]	? 0	26.4 14/15	6.5 3	? 0	6.6 3	[g]	5.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 38][p 39]	27 Dec–2 Jan 2023	700	?	–	17.4 9	16.2 8/9	15.1 8	2.9 0/1	4.5 2	4.0 2	31.9 17/18	6.6 3	1.0 0	–	–	14.5
BIOK/PSN[p 40]	5–22 Dec 2022	1,000	?	–	25.0 13	13.0 7	15.0 8	[f]	[f]	2.0 0	27.0 14	8.0 4	1.0 0	8.0 4	–	2.0
CIS[h][p 41][p 42]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	205	?	–	26.0 12/19	7.8 2/5	14.5 8/11	[f]	[f]	3.2 0/3	21.4 10/17	5.9 2/4	2.9 0/2	7.9 3/7	–	4.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 43]	16 Oct–25 Nov 2022	207	?	38.4 20	20.9 10	13.6 7	15.3 8	[f]	[f]	4.2 2	[i]	[i]	[i]	6.7 3	–	17.5
Gizaker/EiTB[p 44]	2–4 May 2022	650	?	32.1 17	21.9 11	15.0 8	17.3 9	3.5 1	4.5 2	3.9 2	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	10.2
CIES/PSN[p 45][p 46]	29 Mar–21 Apr 2022	1,201	?	–	24.5 13	14.0 7	15.0 8	[f]	[f]	5.0 2/3	25.0 14	4.0 1/2	–	8.5 4	2.0 0	0.5
CIES/UPN[p 47][p 48]	Apr 2022	?	68	–	20.5 10	–	–	–	–	–	31.5 17	–	–	–	–	11.0
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 49]	9–18 Sep 2021	1,200	72.2	34.5 18/19	23.0 12/13	13.1 7	14.0 7	4.0 2	4.8 2	1.5 0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	11.5
inPactos[p 50]	19–27 Apr 2021	800	?	35.0 19	23.0 12	16.0 8	13.5 7	6.0 3	3.0 1	2.0 0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	12.0
SyM Consulting[p 51][p 52]	24–25 Mar 2021	691	72.4	36.0 20	20.9 11/12	17.6 9/10	15.0 8	2.7 0	3.2 1	2.4 0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	15.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 53]	15 Oct 2020	740	?	37.4 21	22.3 12	13.8 7	16.7 9	3.2 1	2.8 0	2.0 0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	15.1
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 54]	9–19 Sep 2020	1,200	72.2	36.4 20	22.6 12	16.2 8	13.9 7	4.0 2	3.1 1	1.5 0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	13.8
SyM Consulting[p 55][p 56]	21–23 May 2020	667	72.0	38.1 21	19.7 10/11	17.9 9/10	14.7 8	3.5 1	2.4 0	2.1 0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	18.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 57][p 58]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	37.0 20	22.5 12	13.2 7	17.1 9	3.8 1	3.0 1	1.5 0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	14.5
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—	65.9	29.6 (15)	25.0 (13)	3.8 (2)	16.9 (9)	[f]	[f]	5.8 (3)	[i]	[i]	[i]	16.6 (8)	–	4.6
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	68.5	36.6 20	20.6 11	17.3 9	14.5 7	4.7 2	3.0 1	1.3 0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	16.0

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size											C/Z	PN	?	N	Lead
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	–	13.8	8.9	11.5	[f]	[f]	2.9	18.7	4.8	0.3	4.1	[g]	—	32.2	4.9
Simple Lógica/Cadena SER[p 6]	3–12 May 2023	1,202	–	16.6	–	–	[f]	[f]	–	12.8	–	–	–	[g]	–	–	3.8
Sigma Dos/EiTB[p 8]	3–11 May 2023	1,358	–	17.5	9.2	11.1	[f]	[f]	3.1	15.1	5.8	0.7	5.2	[g]	20.2	9.6	2.4
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es[p 17]	18–26 Apr 2023	451	–	13.1	7.3	12.9	[f]	[f]	1.7	10.9	6.1	1.0	7.1	[g]	21.9	16.9	0.2
CIS[p 18]	10–26 Apr 2023	507	–	12.8	10.2	11.8	[f]	[f]	3.5	13.4	7.0	0.5	3.6	[g]	29.0	4.3	0.6
Simple Lógica/PSN[p 31]	13–17 Mar 2023	813	–	15.9	7.4	8.6	[f]	[f]	2.6	14.6	3.3	0.2	3.7	[g]	–	–	1.3
GAD3/EiTB[p 59]	22–27 Feb 2023	1,204	–	16.2	9.5	9.8	[f]	[f]	4.1	12.6	7.8	0.6	5.0	[g]	11.5	13.5	3.6
CIS[p 41]	17 Nov–2 Dec 2022	205	–	14.7	4.0	11.3	[f]	[f]	2.0	16.2	3.5	0.4	4.6	–	34.3	2.3	1.5
CIES/PSN[p 46]	29 Mar–21 Apr 2022	1,201	–	20.4	10.0	12.1	[f]	[f]	1.9	16.0	1.5	0.7	6.2	0.3	24.0	1.6	4.4
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 49]	9–18 Sep 2021	1,200	10.1	14.9	8.1	9.5	7.2	3.4	0.8	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	32.6	8.6	4.8
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 54]	9–19 Sep 2020	1,200	18.0	17.7	6.1	9.9	3.3	1.4	1.0	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	31.5	7.9	0.3
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	—	20.3	17.2	2.6	11.6	[f]	[f]	4.0	[i]	[i]	[i]	11.4	–	—	30.7	3.1
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	26.2	14.8	12.4	10.5	3.4	2.2	0.9	[i]	[i]	[i]	–	–	—	27.8	11.4

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None	?	Lead
Aztiker/Gara[p 35]	14–25 Feb 2023	500	17.5	8.7	26.3	–	–	8.8

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None	?	Lead
Aztiker/Gara[p 35]	14–25 Feb 2023	500	14.2	12.5	16.2	–	–	2.0

Investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called.^[1]

Investiture María Chivite (PSN)
Ballot →		14 August 2023	15 August 2023
Required majority →		26 out of 50 N	Simple Y
	Yes • PSN (11) • GBai (7) • Contigo/Zurekin (3)	21 / 50	21 / 50
	No • UPN (15) • PP (3) • Vox (2)	20 / 50	20 / 50
	Abstentions • EH Bildu (9)	9 / 50	9 / 50
	Absentees	0 / 50	0 / 50
Sources

Opinion poll sources

Other