The 2021 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election was held on 29 September 2021 to elect the next President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and Prime Minister of Japan. Kishida was elected to lead the party, and assumed the premiership on 4 October. He led the party into the 2021 Japanese general election.[1]
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President of the LDP and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on 3 September that he would not run for his re-election, amid low approval ratings and media reports of dissension within the party.[2] Suga was initially elected President of the LDP in 2020 to serve the rest of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's third and final term after Abe resigned in August 2020 due to health issues.
Former Minister for Foreign Affairs Fumio Kishida won the election in a second round runoff, defeating opponent Taro Kono, the incumbent Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform. Kishida's victory was driven by strong support among LDP Diet members, while Kono led polling prior to the election and won the most votes from dues-paying party members. Kishida was confirmed by the Diet as Japan's 100th Prime Minister on 4 October 2021.[3]
Background
Shinzo Abe was elected President of the LDP three consecutive times in 2012, 2015 and 2018 following a rule change in 2017 which extended the office's term limit to three consecutive terms instead of two.[4] He successfully led the LDP to three consecutive general election victories in 2012, 2014 and 2017 and assumed the premiership as the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history.[5] On 28 August 2020, Abe suddenly announced that he would resign as Prime Minister and LDP President following a resurgence of his ulcerative colitis.[6]
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won the party's special election in September 2020 to serve the remainder of Abe's term as LDP President, with Suga subsequently entering office as Prime Minister on 16 September.[2] Suga had initially announced that he would run for re-election for a full term as LDP President in advance of the 2021 general election.[7] On 3 September 2021, Suga reversed course and announced that he would not run for re-election as LDP President, amid poor approval ratings and media reports of internal dissension within the party regarding Suga's leadership.[2]
Suga's withdrawal from the race as well as the fact that most of the LDP's internal factions have declined to endorse a specific candidate led to the election being described as wide open and unpredictable.[8]
Election procedure
The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party".[9] In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.[9]
The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan.[10] In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots.[10] If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected President.[10]
If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff is held immediately between the top two candidates.[10] In the runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture.[10] The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected President.[10]
The party's secretary general can decide to organise the election with the rule of the second round only, as was decided in 2020, but didn't as for 2021.[11]
Candidates
Declared
| Candidate(s) | Date of birth | Current position | Party faction | Electoral district | Reference(s) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 July 1957 (age 64) | Member of the House of Representatives (since 1993) Previous offices held
| Kōchikai (Kishida) |  | [12] | |
 | 7 March 1961 (age 60) | Member of the House of Representatives (since 2005) Previous offices held
| None (Widely regarded as an ally of Shinzo Abe)[13] |  | [13] | |
.jpg) | 10 January 1963 (age 59) | Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform (since 2020) Minister for COVID-19 Vaccinations (since 2021) Member of the House of Representatives (since 1996) Previous offices held
| Shikōkai (Asō) |  | [14] | |
_(cropped).jpg) | 3 September 1960 (age 61) | Member of the House of Representatives (since 1993) Previous offices held | None |  | [15] | |
Withdrawn
| Candidate(s) | Date of birth | Notable positions | Party faction(s) | District(s) | Announced | Withdrew | Reference(s) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 December 1948 (age 73) | Prime Minister (since 2020) Member of the House of Representatives (since 1996) Other offices
| None | | 17 July | 3 September (endorsed Kono)[16] | [7][17] | |
Declined
- Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister (2006–2007, 2012–2020), Member of the House of Representatives, (1996–present) Chief Cabinet Secretary (2005–2006)[18] (endorsed Takaichi)[19]
- Taro Aso, Prime Minister (2008–2009), Deputy Prime Minister (2012–2021), Member of the House of Representatives, (1979–1983, 1986–present), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2005–2007), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, (2003–2005)[20]
- Shigeru Ishiba, Member of the House of Representatives (1986–present), Minister for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy (2014–2016), Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2008–2009), Minister of Defense (2007–2008)[21] (endorsed Kono)[22]
- Shinjirō Koizumi, Member of the House of Representatives for Kanagawa 11th district (2009–present), Minister of the Environment (2019–2021), son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.[23] (endorsed Kono)[23]
- Toshimitsu Motegi, Minister for Foreign Affairs (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (1993–present), former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2012–2014) and Secretary General of the LDP (since 2021)[24]
- Toshihiro Nikai, Member of the House of Representatives (1983–present), Secretary General of the LDP (2016-2021), Minister of Transport (1999–2000), Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2005–2006, 2008–2009)[18]
- Hakubun Shimomura, Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present), Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2012–2015)[25]
Endorsements
- Members of the National Diet
- Akira Amari (Former Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, 2012–2016; member of the House of Representatives for Kanagawa 13th district)[26]
- Toshimitsu Motegi (Minister of Foreign Affairs; member of the House of Representatives for Tochigi 5th district)
- Takuya Hirai (Minister of Digital Agency; member of the House of Representatives for Kagawa 1st district)[27]
- Hiroshi Kajiyama (Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry; member of the House of Representatives for Ibaraki 4th district)[28]
- Yōko Kamikawa (Minister of Justice; member of the House of Representatives for Shizuoka 1st district)[29]
- Gen Nakatani (Former Minister of Defense, 2014–2016; member of the House of Representatives for Kōchi 1st district)[30]
- Nobuteru Ishihara (Former Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy; member of the House of Representatives for Tokyo 8th district)
- Yasuhisa Shiozaki (Former Chief Cabinet Secretary; member of the House of Representatives for Ehime 1st district)
- Itsunori Onodera (Former Minister of Defense; member of the House of Representatives for Miyagi 6th district)
- Kozo Yamamoto (Former Minister for Regional Revitalization; member of the House of Representatives for Fukuoka 10th district)
- Seishiro Eto (Former Director-General of the Japan Defense Agency ; member of the House of Representatives for Ōita ２nd district)
- Prefectural politicians
- Hidehiko Yuzaki (Governor of Hiroshima Prefecture)[31]
- Municipal politicians
- Party factions
- Wataru Takeshita (Former Chairman of the Heisei Kenkyūkai; former member of the House of Representatives for Shimane 2nd district; former Minister for Reconstruction, 2014–2015)[a][32]
- Hiroyuki Hosoda (Chairman of the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai; member of the House of Representatives for Shimane 1st district); former Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2004–2005)[32]
- Other prominent individuals
- Sadakazu Tanigaki (Former party president, 2009–2012; former Leader of the Opposition, 2009–2012; former Minister of Justice, 2012–2014; former member of the House of Representatives for Kyōto 5th district, 1983–2016)[33]
- Yoshimasa Hayashi (Former Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; Former member of the House of Councillors for Yamaguchi district)
- Members of the National Diet
- Shigeru Ishiba (Former Minister of Defense, 2007–2008; member of the House of Representatives for Tottori 1st district)[22]
- Yoshihide Suga (Prime Minister and outgoing party president; former Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2012–2020; member of the House of Representatives for Kanagawa 2nd district)[16]
- Shinjirō Koizumi (Minister of the Environment; member of the House of Representatives for Kanagawa 11th district; Son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi)[23]
- Norihisa Tamura (Minister of Health, Labour, and Welfare; member of the House of Representatives for Mie 4th district)[34]
- Tetsushi Sakamoto (Minister of Loneliness; member of the House of Representatives for Kumamoto 3rd district)
- Yasufumi Tanahashi (Chairman of the National Public Safety Commission; member of the House of Representatives for Gifu 2nd district)
- Shinji Inoue (Minister in charge of International Exposition; member of the House of Representatives for Tokyo 25th district)
- Hiroshi Moriyama (Former Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; member of the House of Representatives for Tokyo Kagoshima 4th district)
- Takeshi Iwaya (Former Minister of Defense; member of the House of Representatives for Ōita's 3rd district)
- Prefectural politicians
- Ichita Yamamoto (Governor of Gunma Prefecture; former member of the House of Councillors for Gunma at-large district, 1995–2019)[35]
- Municipal politicians
- Party factions
- Other prominent individuals
- Yōhei Kōno (Former party president, 1993–1995; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, 2003–2009; former member of the House of Representatives for Kanagawa 5th district, 1967–1996, and Kanagawa 17th district, 1996–2009; father of Tarō Kōno) [36]
- Members of the National Diet
- Shinzō Abe (Former party president, 2006–2007, 2012–2020; former Prime Minister, 2006–2007, 2012–2020; former member of the House of Representatives for Yamaguchi 4th district)[37]
- Nobuo Kishi (Minister of Defense; member of the House of Representatives for Yamaguchi 2nd district; former member of the House of Councillors for Yamaguchi at-large district, 2004–2012)[38]
- Yasutoshi Nishimura (Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy; member of the House of Representatives for Hyogo 9th district）[39]
- Kōichi Hagiuda (Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; member of the House of Representatives for Tokyo 24th district）
- Takeo Kawamura (Former Chief Cabinet Secretary; member of the House of Representatives for Yamaguchi 3rd district）
- Tomomi Inada (Former Minister of Defense; member of the House of Representatives for Fukui 1st district）
- Hiroshi Hase (Former Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; professional wrestler; member of the House of Representatives for Ishikawa 1st district）
- Yoshitaka Sakurada (Former Minister of State for the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games; member of the House of Representatives for Chiba 8th district）
- Prefectural politicians
- Municipal politicians
- Party factions
- Other prominent individuals
- Members of the National Diet
- Yasukazu Hamada (Former Minister of Defense; member of the House of Representatives for Chiba 12th district)[40]
- Kisaburo Tokai (Former Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; member of the House of Representatives for Hyōgo 10th district)[40]
- Jirō Kawasaki (Former Minister of Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare; member of the House of Representatives for Tōkai at-large district)
- Junko Mihara (Member of the House of Councillors for Kanagawa at-large district)
- Prefectural politicians
- Municipal politicians
- Party factions
- Other prominent individuals
Recommenders
Opinion polling
| Fieldwork date | Pollster/Link | Sample size | Fumio Kishida | Sanae Takaichi | Tarō Kōno | Shigeru Ishiba | Seiko Noda | Shinjirō Koizumi | Yoshihide Suga | Undecided/None | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25–26 September 2021 | Kyodo News[42] | 1,014 | 22.4% | 16.2% | 47.4% | – | 3.4% | – | – | 10.7% | LDP party members |
| 25 September 2021 | Mainichi Shimbun[43] | 3,748 | 18% | 28% | 47% | – | 4% | – | – | 3% | – |
| 18 September 2021 | Mainichi Shimbun[44] | 1,043 | 13% | 15% | 43% | – | 6% | – | – | 23% | – |
| 17–18 September 2021 | Kyodo News[45] | 1,028 | 18.5% | 15.7% | 48.6% | – | 3.3% | – | – | 13.9% | LDP party members |
| 14 September 2021 | Shigeru Ishiba announces that he will not run for the LDP leadership; Shinjirō Koizumi announces that he will not run for the LDP leadership and will back Taro Kono | ||||||||||
| 11–12 September 2021 | Asahi Shimbun[46] | 1,477 | 14% | 8% | 33% | 16% | 3% | – | – | 26% | – |
| 9–11 September 2021 | Nikkei Asia[47] | N/A | 14% | 7% | 27% | 17% | – | – | – | 35% | – |
| 4–5 September 2021 | Kyodo News[48] | 1,071 | 18.8% | 4% | 31.9% | 26.6% | 4.4% | – | – | 14.3% | – |
| 4–5 September 2021 | Yomiuri Shimbun[49] | 1,142 | 12% | – | 23% | 21% | – | 11% | – | 33% | – |
| 27–29 August 2021 | Nikkei Asia | 1,025 | 13% | 3% | 16% | 15.5% | – | – | 11% | 41.5% | "Preferred Leader of the LDP" |
| 14% | – | 18% | 12% | – | – | 20% | 36% | "Preferred Prime Minister" | |||
Results
| Candidate | 1st Round | 2nd Round | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diet members | Party members | Total points | Diet members | Prefectural chapters | Total points | ||||||||||
| Votes cast | % | Popular votes | % | Allocated votes | % | Total votes | % | Votes cast | % | Votes cast | % | Total votes | % | ||
| Fumio Kishida | 146 | 38.42 | 219,338 | 28.86 | 110 | 28.80 | 256 | 33.60 | 249 | 65.53 | 8 | 17.02 | 257 | 60.19 | |
| Taro Kono | 86 | 22.63 | 335,046 | 44.08 | 169 | 44.24 | 255 | 33.46 | 131 | 34.47 | 39 | 82.98 | 170 | 39.81 | |
| Sanae Takaichi | 114 | 30.00 | 147,764 | 19.44 | 74 | 19.37 | 188 | 24.67 | Eliminated | ||||||
| Seiko Noda | 34 | 8.95 | 57,927 | 7.62 | 29 | 7.59 | 63 | 8.27 | Eliminated | ||||||
| Total | 380 | 100 | 760,075 | 100 | 382 | 100 | 762 | 100 | 380 | 100 | 47 | 100 | 427 | 100 | |
Aftermath
After Prime Minister Suga announced his resignation, Kono was heavily favored to win the election as he was in first place among many LDP polls leading up to the election.[52] His campaign was endorsed by Suga and other high ranking LDP members,[53] but Kishida narrowly won the first round of the election and ultimately defeated Kono in the run-off.[50][51]
After being elected, Kishida's victory was labelled as a win for the party's "technocrats establishment".[54] Kishida was seen by many LDP members as a stable choice to succeed Suga rather than a rapid change.[54][55] Kono was seen as a candidate of change.[55] Kishida vowed not to increase the consumption tax rates in Japan and reviewing the pension and health-care system in the country.[54] He has said that his main focus would be to focus on income redistribution to address income inequality.[54]
U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Kishida and looked "forward to working with [Kishida] to strengthen our cooperation in the years ahead".[56]
President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen congratulated Kishida after he was elected Prime Minister of Japan.[57]
Notes
References
External links
- YouTube, LDP channel: 自民党総裁選2021 (Jimintō sōsaisen 2021, "LDP presidential election 2021") playlist with election-related formalities (election commission announcements, official candidate registration/nomination procedure, (scheduled) delegate/MP voting & count) and the LDP-sponsored online debates and interviews
- NHK, Nichiyō Tōron (NHK's political Sunday talk show): Episode 2021/9/19 with the four candidates for LDP president as guests (full video is only accessible via NHK+ domestically)