2020 Queensland state election

The 2020 Queensland state election was held on 31 October to elect all 93 members to the 57th Legislative Assembly of Queensland. The Labor Party was returned to government for a third-term, led by incumbent premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.[2] With 47 seats needed to form a majority government, Labor won 52 seats, including all but five in Brisbane, while the Liberal National Party won 34 seats and formed opposition. On the crossbench, Katter's Australian Party retained its 3 seats, the Queensland Greens picked up South Brisbane for a total of 2, Pauline Hanson's One Nation retained Mirani and independent Sandy Bolton retained her seat of Noosa.

2020 Queensland state election

← 201731 October 20202024 →

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered3,377,476 Increase4.6%
Turnout2,969,347 (87.92%)
(Increase0.4 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
LeaderAnnastacia PalaszczukDeb FrecklingtonRobbie Katter
PartyLaborLiberal NationalKatter's Australian
Leader since28 March 2012 (2012-03-28)12 December 2017 (2017-12-12)2 February 2015 (2015-02-02)
Leader's seatInalaNanangoTraeger
Last election48 seats, 35.4%39 seats, 33.7%3 seats, 2.32%
Seats before4838[a]3
Seats won52343
Seat changeIncrease 4Decrease 4Steady
Popular vote1,134,9691,029,44272,168
Percentage39.6%35.9%2.5%
SwingIncrease 4.1Increase 2.2Increase 0.2
TPP53.2%46.8%
TPP swingIncrease 1.9Decrease 1.9

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
PHON
NQF
LeaderNo leaderNo leaderJason Costigan
PartyGreensOne NationNQ First
Leader sinceN/AN/A18 November 2019
Leader's seatN/AN/AWhitsunday
(lost seat)
Last election1 seat, 10.0%1 seat, 13.7%New party
Seats before111[a]
Seats won210
Seat changeIncrease 1SteadyDecrease 1
Popular vote271,514204,3165,616
Percentage9.5%7.1%0.2%
SwingDecrease 0.5Decrease 6.6Increase 0.2

Winning margin by electorate.

Premier before election

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

Elected Premier

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

Both major parties managed a small swing to them on primary votes, as a result of One Nation's vote sharply declining. On the two-party-preferred vote, Labor had a small swing to it statewide, though the party did notably lose some ground to the LNP in some key seats, including the ultra-marginal seats of Burdekin and Whitsunday, and the LNP also won both Toowoomba-based seats with increased majorities. Labor picked up five seats from the LNP, but notably sitting Deputy Premier Jackie Trad lost her seat of South Brisbane to the Greens.

At 11pm on 31 October, Liberal National Party leader Deb Frecklington conceded defeat, congratulating Palaszczuk on her victory.[2] Frecklington initially indicated that she would stay on as party leader, but on 2 November announced that she would convene a party meeting and resign as leader.[3] David Crisafulli won the ensuing leadership spill and was elected LNP leader on 12 November 2020.[4]

Palaszczuk became the first female party leader to win three state elections in Australia,[5] as well as the first Queensland Premier to increase their party's seat total across three successive elections.[6]

Results

Map of results by electorate.
52211334
ALPGRNINDONPKAPLNP
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout 87.9% (CV)[7][8]
PartyVotes%SwingSeats+/–
 Labor1,134,96939.57+4.1452 4
 Liberal National1,029,44235.89+2.2034 5
 Greens271,5149.47−0.532 1
 One Nation204,3167.12−6.601
 Katter's Australian72,1682.52+0.203
 Legalise Cannabis26,1460.91+0.910
 United Australia17,9040.62+0.620
 Informed Medical Options17,5460.61+0.610
 Animal Justice9,7030.34+0.340
 North Queensland First5,6160.20+0.200
 Civil Liberties and Motorists5,2070.18−0.08[b]0
 Shooters, Fishers, Farmers2,8010.10+0.100
 Independents70,9922.48−2.101
 Formal votes2,868,32496.60+0.94
 Informal votes101,0233.40−0.94
 Total 2,969,34710093
 Registered voters / turnout3,377,47687.92+0.39
Two-party-preferred vote[9]
Labor1,524,76653.2 1.9
Liberal National1,343,55846.8 1.9

Vote summary

Popular vote
Labor
39.57%
LNP
35.89%
Greens
9.47%
One Nation
7.12%
Katter's
2.52%
Independents
2.48%
Other
2.95%
Two-party preferred vote
Labor
53.2%
LNP
46.8%
Seats summary
Labor
55.91%
LNP
36.56%
Katter's
3.23%
Greens
2.15%
One Nation
1.08%
Independents
1.08%

Seats changing hands

Seat2017 ElectionSwing2020 Election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
BundabergLiberal NationalDavid Batt4.20-4.210.01Tom SmithLabor
CaloundraLiberal NationalMark McArdle3.41-5.922.51Jason HuntLabor
Hervey BayLiberal NationalTed Sorensen9.10-11.122.02Adrian TantariLabor
NicklinLiberal NationalMarty Hunt5.28-5.420.14Robert SkeltonLabor
PumicestoneLiberal NationalSimone Wilson0.84-6.115.27Ali KingLabor
South BrisbaneLaborJackie Trad3.55-8.905.35Amy MacMahonGreens
  • Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • The Liberal National Party also retained the seat of Whitsunday, where the sitting Liberal National member had resigned and contested the election as a member of their own party.

The swing between the major parties in each seat varied across the state. However, Labor managed a small statewide swing to it.

Queenslanders have been known to, at some points in time, vote for Labor on the state level and the LNP on the federal level; in 2019, when the federal Coalition government led by Scott Morrison was unexpectedly re-elected for a third consecutive term, the LNP won 23 of the 30 House of Representatives seats in Queensland and 58.44% of the two-party-preferred vote in the state, with Morrison's victory being credited to a stronger-than-expected performance in Queensland and Tasmania, despite Queensland having a state Labor government.

Ultimately, Labor managed to gain five seats from the LNP, including two Sunshine Coast seats (Caloundra and Nicklin), two seats in smaller regional cities (Bundaberg and Hervey Bay) and one seat in Brisbane (Pumicestone). However, Labor lost the seat of South Brisbane to the Greens, therefore giving Labor a net seat change of +4.

The seat of Bundaberg was won by Labor with a margin of just nine votes, currently the smallest margin of any federal or state electorate in Australia.

Labor's defeat in South Brisbane was significant in two ways. The Greens won their second state seat in Queensland, after winning Maiwar from the LNP in 2017. However, it also led to the defeat of sitting Deputy Premier Jackie Trad.[10] Trad became the first sitting Deputy Premier of Queensland to be unseated since 1947 (when Labor's Ted Walsh was unseated).

One Nation contested 90 seats at this election, but the party's vote dropped dramatically, having almost halved. One Nation finished second in many seats in 2017, but in 2020 the party only finished second in one seat: the Labor-held seat of Bundamba. Nevertheless, One Nation managed to get an increased majority in the only lower house seat in Australia that it currently holds: Mirani (represented by Stephen Andrew since 2017).

While Labor received a small swing to it in most seats, the party did lose some ground to the LNP in a few key seats, including Buderim, Cook, Mackay, Toowoomba North and Whitsunday.

The LNP managed to regain the seat of Whitsunday, where the sitting member (Jason Costigan) was expelled from the LNP and formed his own party, North Queensland First. The LNP candidate, Amanda Camm, managed to win the seat with an increased majority over the Labor Party.

Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
BundabergTom SmithALP0.01%
NicklinRobert SkeltonALP0.14%
Hervey BayAdrian TantariALP2.02%
CaloundraJason HuntALP2.51%
Barron RiverCraig CrawfordALP3.06%
TownsvilleScott StewartALP3.12%
ThuringowaAaron HarperALP3.25%
RedlandsKim RichardsALP3.90%
MundingburraLes WalkerALP3.93%
AspleyBart MellishALP5.16%
PumicestoneAli KingALP5.27%
CairnsMichael HealyALP5.59%
KeppelBrittany LaugaALP5.63%
Fairly safe
RedcliffeYvette D'AthALP6.11%
CookCynthia LuiALP6.26%
Pine RiversNikki BoydALP6.70%
MackayJulieanne GilbertALP6.72%
MansfieldCorrine McMillanALP6.80%
GavenMeaghan ScanlonALP7.75%
SpringwoodMick de BrenniALP8.39%
RockhamptonBarry O'RourkeALP8.62%
MacalisterMelissa McMahonALP9.54%
CapalabaDon BrownALP9.81%
Safe
CooperJonty BushALP10.49%
Ferny GroveMark FurnerALP10.97%
McConnelGrace GraceALP11.06%
MurrumbaSteven MilesALP11.33%
BulimbaDi FarmerALP11.39%
StaffordJimmy SullivanALP11.88%
MaryboroughBruce SaundersALP11.89%
MulgraveCurtis PittALP12.24%
Mount OmmaneyJess PughALP12.61%
BancroftChris WhitingALP12.80%
KurwongbahShane KingALP13.15%
GreenslopesJoe KellyALP13.20%
LyttonJoan PeaseALP13.35%
LoganLinus PowerALP13.39%
MillerMark BaileyALP13.82%
Ipswich WestJim MaddenALP14.35%
TooheyPeter RussoALP14.52%
StrettonDuncan PeggALP14.82%
NudgeeLeanne LinardALP15.09%
WaterfordShannon FentimanALP16.02%
IpswichJennifer HowardALP16.52%
MorayfieldMark RyanALP16.73%
JordanCharis MullenALP17.10%
SandgateStirling HinchliffeALP17.30%
AlgesterLeeanne EnochALP17.77%
Very safe
BundambaLance McCallumALP20.68% v ONP
GladstoneGlenn ButcherALP23.49%
WoodridgeCameron DickALP26.25%
InalaAnnastacia PalaszczukALP28.17%
Non-government seats
Marginal
CurrumbinLaura GerberLNP0.52%
CoomeraMichael CrandonLNP1.08%
BurleighMichael HartLNP1.21%
ChatsworthSteve MinnikinLNP1.29%
ClayfieldTim NichollsLNP1.55%
Glass HouseAndrew PowellLNP1.59%
EvertonTim ManderLNP2.24%
WhitsundayAmanda CammLNP3.26%
TheodoreMark BoothmanLNP3.33%
MoggillChristian RowanLNP3.59%
NinderryDan PurdieLNP4.11%
Mermaid BeachRay StevensLNP4.39%
OodgerooMark RobinsonLNP4.48%
BuderimBrent MickelbergLNP5.29%
SouthportRob MolhoekLNP5.41%
Fairly safe
BurdekinDale LastLNP7.05%
Toowoomba NorthTrevor WattsLNP7.32%
GympieTony PerrettLNP8.49%
MaroochydoreFiona SimpsonLNP9.12%
KawanaJarrod BleijieLNP9.31%
Safe
BonneySam O'ConnorLNP10.07%
MudgeerabaRos BatesLNP10.09%
Toowoomba SouthDavid JanetzkiLNP10.22%
BurnettStephen BennettLNP10.79%
Scenic RimJon KrauseLNP11.45%
LockyerJim McDonaldLNP11.52%
NanangoDeb FrecklingtonLNP12.21%
Southern DownsJames ListerLNP14.09%
CallideColin BoyceLNP15.83%
Surfers ParadiseJohn-Paul LangbroekLNP16.22%
BroadwaterDavid CrisafulliLNP16.57%
GregoryLachlan MillarLNP17.25%
CondaminePat WeirLNP19.20%
Very safe
WarregoAnn LeahyLNP23.15%
Crossbench seats
South BrisbaneAmy MacMahonGRN5.35% v ALP
MaiwarMichael BerkmanGRN6.32% v LNP
MiraniStephen AndrewONP8.98% v ALP
HinchinbrookNick DamettoKAP14.76% v LNP
NoosaSandy BoltonIND15.85% v LNP
HillShane KnuthKAP22.55% v ALP
TraegerRobbie KatterKAP24.72% v ALP

Subsequent changes

Background

At the 2017 election, Labor won majority with 48 of 93 seats and formed government in the 56th Queensland Parliament. The LNP won 39 seats and formed opposition. Being allocated to crossbench, the Katter's Australian Party won three seats, One Nation won one seat, the Greens won one seat and Independent Sandy Bolton won the seat of Noosa.

Despite two by-elections, the composition of the 56th Parliament was unchanged, with the exception of the member for Whitsunday Jason Costigan. He was expelled from the LNP over allegations of behavioural impropriety, resulting in him joining the crossbench and eventually forming the North Queensland First party.

Labor has won all but one state election since 1989, and has only been out of government for five years since then. It lost its majority in 1996, giving way to a Coalition minority government that was defeated in 1998. In 2012, it suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history, but regained power in 2015.

This election also marks the first time that both leaders of the current government and opposition have been female in a Queensland state election.[11] It is only the second time it has occurred in an Australian state, territory or federal election, the first time being the 1995 ACT election.

A record number of minor parties and candidates ran in the election, 342 minor party candidates, 69 as independents or not officially endorsed by any party. Labor, the LNP and the Greens ran candidates in every electorate, Pauline Hanson's One Nation ran in 90 electorates.[12]

Electoral system

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ).

Of the political parties contesting the election, the party, or coalition, that win the majority of seats (at least 47) forms the government.

The party, or coalition that gains the next highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia. It has just one House—the Legislative Assembly.

Key dates

The election was for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 vote scheduled every four years on the last Saturday of October. The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Under the legislation, the caretaker period commenced on 5 October 2020, 26 days prior to the election date.[13]

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, consideration was given to holding this election as a full postal ballot,[14] but this did not occur.[15] Despite this, a record number of postal votes was cast at the election, with a majority of Queenslanders voting before polling day.[15]

The election timetable is as follows:[16]

DateEvent
6 October 2020Queensland Parliament dissolved by Governor Paul de Jersey[17]
10 October 2020Close of electoral rolls
11 October 2020Close of nominations
19 October 2020Early voting begins
30 October 2020Early voting ends at 6 pm
31 October 2020Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm
10 November 2020Last day for receipt of postal votes by 6 pm

Registered parties

Since the previous election, 2017, six political parties were registered by Queensland's Electoral Commission: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, North Queensland First, the Animal Justice Party, Clive Palmer's United Australia Party, Informed Medical Options Party, and Legalise Cannabis Queensland.

The following twelve registered parties contested the election, including a record number of minor parties:

Preferences

The LNP confirmed it would preference Labor candidates last on all of its how-to-vote cards.[19] An exception is for Maiwar, a seat held by the Greens, where the LNP put the sitting Greens member below the Labor candidate in the how-to-vote card.[20]

In response to LNP's preferences, Katter's Australia Party announced it would preference Greens candidates last on its party's how-to-vote cards, with party leader Robbie Katter suggesting the LNP's decision would lead to Greens candidates winning a number of seats in Brisbane.[21] Katter's Australia Party and Pauline Hanson's One Nation also announced a preference deal on 8 October, with the parties to preference each other in second place on their how-to-vote cards.[22]

Labor confirmed it would preference One Nation last on how-to-vote cards.[20]

Retiring MPs

Labor

Liberal National

Candidates

At the close of nominations on 11 October 2020, 597 candidates had nominated for the state election—the highest number of candidates at a Queensland state election, surpassing the previous record of 453 candidates at the 2017 election.[29]

Leaders' debates

The first leaders' debate of the campaign between Palaszczuk and Frecklington was a People's Forum hosted by Sky News and the Courier Mail and was held on 28 October.[30] The selected audience consisted of undecided voters who post-debate were asked which party they would vote for based on the debate performance of the respective leaders. A majority of 53% opted for Labor, 30% for the LNP, whilst the remaining 17% were undecided.[31]

Polling

Several research, media and polling firms conduct opinion polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the state election in relation to voting. Most firms use an estimate of the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate preferences.

Graphical summary

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last state election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote2pp vote
ALPLNPGreenONOtherALPLNP
31 October 2020 election39.6%35.9%9.5%7.1%7.9%53.2%46.8%
25–30 Oct 2020Newspoll[32]37%36%11%10%6%51.5%48.5%
12–15 Oct 2020Roy Morgan[33]36%35%10%12%7%51%49%
9–14 Oct 2020Newspoll[34]37%37%11%9%6%52%48%
24 Sep–1 Oct 2020YouGov[35]37%37%12%9%5%52%48%
30 July 2020Newspoll[36]34%38%12%11%5%49%51%
7 June 2020YouGov[37]32%38%12%12%6%48%52%
7 February 2020YouGov[38]34%35%10%15%6%50%50%
30 August 2019YouGov[39]32%37%13%13%5%49%51%
13–14 February 2019YouGov[40]35%35%11%8%11%52%48%
7–8 November 2018YouGov[41]36%34%11%10%9%53%47%
8–9 August 2018YouGov[42]35%37%11%10%7%51%49%
9–10 May 2018YouGov[43]38%35%10%12%5%53%47%
7–8 Feb 2018YouGov[44]37%36%10%10%7%52%48%
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition
25 Nov 2017 election35.4%33.7%10.0%13.7%7.2%51.2%48.8%
21–24 Nov 2017Newspoll[45]36%34%10%13%7%52.5%47.5%
24 Nov 2017Galaxy[46]37%35%9%12%7%52%48%
20 Nov 2017ReachTEL[47]34%30%10%17%9%51%49%

Better premier and leadership approval polling

Opinion polls conducted for preferred premier
Approval ratings of Annastacia Palaszczuk
Approval ratings of Deb Frecklington
Better premier/approval polling
DateFirmBetter premierPalaszczukFrecklington
PalaszczukFrecklingtonSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
9–14 Oct 2020Newspoll[48]56%32%63%33%37%44%
24 Sep–1 Oct 2020YouGov[35]48%22%57%27%29%32%
21 September 2020Newspoll[49]--63%33%--
30 July 2020Newspoll[50]57%26%64%29%34%42%
12 June 2020Liberal National Party[51]42%19%----
7 June 2020YouGov[38]44%23%49%33%26%29%
7 February 2020YouGov[38]34%22%29%44%23%33%
30 August 2019YouGov[52]34%29%34%45%30%30%
13–14 February 2019YouGov[40]47%27%48%38%31%35%
7–8 November 2018YouGov[41]43%26%46%37%35%29%
8–9 August 2018YouGov[42]--41%38%31%26%
9–10 May 2018YouGov[43]47%27%46%38%31%28%
7–8 Feb 2018YouGov[44]42%31%----
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition

Electoral district polling

DateFirmElectorateVoting intention2cp vote
ALPLNPONPGRNKAPUAPLCAOTHALPLNPGRN
26 Oct 2020Newspoll[53]South Brisbane32.0%24.0%39.0%45.5%54.5%
24 Oct 2020Newspoll[54]Mansfield41.0%45.0%2.0%9.0%0.5%1.5%1.0%50.5%49.5%
Mundingburra35.0%32.0%11.0%4.0%14.0%2.0%2.0%49.5%50.5%
Pumicestone45.0%37.0%9.0%6.0%1.0%2.0%54.0%46.0%

Notes

References