2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
(Redirected from 2018 Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial election)
The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk.[1][2] The primary elections were held on May 15.[3] This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.
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   Wolf: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Wagner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Republicans flipped the counties of Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill. Meanwhile, this was the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidate
Nominated
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tom Wolf (incumbent) | 741,676 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 741,676 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominated
- John Fetterman, mayor of Braddock and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[4]
Eliminated in the primary
- Nina Ahmad, former deputy mayor of Philadelphia[5]
- Kathi Cozzone, Chester County Commissioner[6]
- Ray Sosa, banker and insurance broker[7]
- Mike Stack, incumbent lieutenant governor[8]
Withdrawn
- Aryanna Berringer, Iraq War veteran and nominee for PA-16 in 2012 (endorsed Kathi Cozzone)[9][10]
- Madeleine Dean, state representative (running for PA-04)[11][12]
- Craig Lehman, Lancaster County commissioner (endorsed Kathi Cozzone)[13]
Declined
Endorsements
Kathi Cozzone
- State legislators
- Carolyn Comitta, state representative from the 156th district (2017–2020)[14]
- John Galloway, state representative from the 140th district (2007–present)[14]
Madeleine Dean (withdrawn)
- Federal officials
- Allyson Schwartz, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district (2005–2015)[11]
- State legislators
- Matthew Bradford, state representative from the 70th district (2009–present)[11]
- Tim Briggs, state representative from the 149th district (2009–present)[11]
- Mary Jo Daley, state representative from the 148th district (2013–present)[11]
- Frank Dermody, state representative from the 33rd district (1991–2020), Pennsylvania House Democratic Leader (2011–2020)[11]
- Dan Frankel, state representative from the 23rd district (1999–present)[11]
- Joseph Markosek, state representative from the 25th district (1983–2018)[11]
John Fetterman
- Federal officials
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)[15]
- State officials
- Ed Rendell, 45th governor of Pennsylvania (2003–2011)[16]
- State legislators
- Ed Gainey, state representative from the 24th district (2013–2022)
- Municipal officials
- Pete Buttigieg, 32nd mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)
- Eric Papenfuse, Mayor of Harrisburg (2014–2022)[17]
- Bill Peduto, 60th mayor of Pittsburgh (2014–2022)[4]
- Labor unions
- United Steelworkers District 10[18]
- Organizations
- Individuals
- Randy Bryce, ironworker and candidate for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district
- Newspapers
Mike Stack
- Federal officials
- Bob Brady, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district (1998–2019)[22]
- State legislators
- Lisa Boscola, state senator from the 18th district (1999–present)[22]
- Jim Brewster, state senator from the 45th district (2010–present)[23]
- Jay Costa, state senator from the 43rd district (1996–present) Pennsylvania Senate Minority Leader (2011–present)[23]
- Andy Dinniman, state senator from the 19th district (2006–2020)[24]
- Larry Farnese, state senator from the 1st district (2009–2020)[24]
- Wayne Fontana, state senator from the 42nd district (2005–present)[23]
- Vincent Hughes, state senator from the 7th district (1994–present)[22]
- Rich Kasunic, state senator from the 32nd district (1995–2015)[22]
- Shirley Kitchen, state senator from the 3rd district (1996–2016)[22]
- Daylin Leach, state senator from the 17th district (2009–2020)[22]
- Judy Schwank, state senator from the 11th district (2011–present)[22]
- Christine Tartaglione, state senator from the 2nd district (1995–present)[22]
- Anthony Williams, state senator from the 8th congressional district (1999–present)[24]
- John Yudichak, state senator from the 14th district (2011–2022)[22]
- Municipal officials
- Bobby Henon, Philadelphia City Council member from the 6th district (2012–2022)[22]
- Jonathan Saidel, Philadelphia city controller (1990–2006)[22]
Declined to endorse
- Pittsburgh DSA[25]
- Tom Wolf, 47th governor of Pennsylvania (2015–2023)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Aryanna Berringer | Kathi Cozzone | Madeleine Dean | John Fetterman | Craig Lehman | Mike Stack | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independence Communications & Campaigns, LLC | February 2–4, 2018 | 467 | ± 4.53% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 20% | 1% | 8% | 55% |
Primary results
Fetterman—70–80%
Fetterman—60–70%
Fetterman—50–60%
Fetterman—40–50%
Fetterman—<40%
Ahmad—40–50%
Ahmad—<40%
Cozzone—60–70%
Cozzone—<40%
Stack—<40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Fetterman | 288,229 | 38.0 | |
| Democratic | Nina Ahmad | 182,309 | 23.8 | |
| Democratic | Kathi Cozzone | 142,410 | 18.6 | |
| Democratic | Mike Stack (incumbent) | 127,259 | 16.6 | |
| Democratic | Ray Sosa | 27,427 | 3.6 | |
| Total votes | 767,634 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Scott Wagner, state senator[26][27][28]
Eliminated in the primary
Withdrawn
- Mike Turzai, speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and nominee for PA-04 in 1998[32]
Declined
- Paul Addis, businessman (ran for U.S. Senate)[33][34]
- Lou Barletta, U.S. representative (ran for U.S. Senate)[35][36]
- Jake Corman, majority leader of the Pennsylvania State Senate[37]
- Mike Kelly, U.S. representative[38]
- Dave Reed, majority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives[39]
Endorsements
Laura Ellsworth
- Municipal officials
- Jim Roddey, Chief Executive of Allegheny County (2000–2004)[40]
- Individuals
- Carly Fiorina, businesswoman[41]
- Newspapers
Paul Mango
- U.S. Senators
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[45]
- Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007)[46]
- Organizations
Scott Wagner
- Federal officials
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021)[48]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[49]
- Governors
- Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–2023)[50]
- U.S. Representatives
- Scott Perry, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2013–2019)[51]
- State Senators
- Camera Bartolotta, state senator from the 46th district (2015–present)
- Mike Regan, state senator from the 31st district (2017–present)[52]
- Guy Reschenthaler, state senator from the 37th district (2015–2019)
- Pat Stefano, state senator from the 32nd district (2015–present)
- Donald C. White, state senator from the 41st district (2001–2019)
- State Representatives
- Keith J. Gillespie, state representative from the 47th district (2003–present)[51]
- Seth Grove, state representative from the 196th district (2009–present)[51]
- Dawn Keefer, state representative from the 92nd district (2017–present)[51]
- Kate Klunk, state representative from the 169th district (2015–present)[51]
- Kristin Phillips-Hill, state representative from the 93rd district (2015–2019)[51]
- Stan Saylor, state representative from the 94th district (1993–2022)[51]
- Individuals
- Diamond and Silk, social media personalities and political activists[53]
- Organizations
Mike Turzai (Withdrawn)
- State Senators
- Scott Hutchinson, state senator from the 21st district (2013–present)[57]
- State Representatives
- Matt Dowling, state representative from the 51st district (2017–2022)
- Brian L. Ellis, state representative from the 11th district (2005–2019)
- R. Lee James, state representative from the 64th district (2013–present)
- Jim E. Marshall, state representative 14th district (2007–present)
- Kathy Rapp, state representative from the 65th district (2005–present)[57]
- Ryan Warner, state representative from the 52nd district (2015–present)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Laura Ellsworth | Paul Mango | Scott Wagner | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | May 4–8, 2018 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 18% | 23% | 37% | 1% | 22% |
| ColdSpark Media (R-Ellsworth) | May 2018 | – | – | 17% | 24% | 28% | – | 30% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) | April 2–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 9% | 24% | 50% | – | 17% |
| Revily (R-American Principles Project) | March 13–15, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 4% | 18% | 20% | – | 57% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) Archived October 7, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | September 18–20, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | – | 16% | 45% | – | 39% |
| 5% | 13% | 45% | – | 37% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Scott Wagner | Paul Mango | Mike Turzai | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) | April 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 8% | 10% | 45% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Scott Wagner | Paul Mango | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) | September 18–20, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 16% | 39% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) | April 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 13% | 46% |
Results
Wagner—60–70%
Wagner—50–60%
Wagner—40–50%
Mango—40–50%
Mango—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Scott Wagner | 324,013 | 44.3 | |
| Republican | Paul Mango | 270,014 | 36.9 | |
| Republican | Laura Ellsworth | 137,650 | 18.8 | |
| Total votes | 731,677 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Jeff Bartos, businessman (running with Scott Wagner)[58]
Eliminated in the primary
- Kathy Coder, political activist[59]
- Peg Luksik, political activist[60]
- Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County commissioner (running with Paul Mango)[61]
Removed from the ballot
- Joe Gale, Montgomery County commissioner (did not meet minimum age requirement of 30)[62][63]
Withdrawn
- Gordon Denlinger, former state representative[64][65]
- Otto Voit, candidate for state treasurer in 2016[64][66]
Considered potential
- Dave Argall, state senator and nominee for PA-17 in 2010[67]
- Erin Elmore, attorney, political correspondent and The Apprentice contestant[68]
Declined
- Dan Meuser, former Pennsylvania secretary of revenue and candidate for PA-10 in 2008 (running for PA-09)[69][70]
- Justin Simmons, state representative (running for PA-15)[71][72]
Endorsements
Jeff Bartos
Results
Bartos—60–70%
Bartos—50–60%
Bartos—40–50%
Bartos—<40%
Coder—40–50%
Coder—<40%
Vaughan—70–80%
Vaughan—50–60%
Vaughan—40–50%
Luksik—50–60%
Luksik—<40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Bartos | 317,619 | 46.8 | |
| Republican | Kathy Coder | 147,805 | 21.8 | |
| Republican | Diana Irey Vaughan | 119,400 | 17.6 | |
| Republican | Peg Luksik | 93,667 | 13.8 | |
| Total votes | 678,491 | 100.0 | ||
Green Party
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Paul Glover, community organizer[73]
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick
Endorsements
Paul Glover
- Patch Adams, physician and activist[74]
Libertarian Party
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur (running with Ken Krawchuk)
General election
Candidates
- Paul Glover (G), author, community organizer[76]
- Ken Krawchuk (L), IT entrepreneur, freelance writer[77]
- Scott Wagner (R), former state senator[26][27][28]
- Tom Wolf (D), incumbent governor[1]
Debates
- October 1, 2018: Complete video of debate (begins at 08:50)
Endorsements
Scott Wagner (R)
- Federal officials
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021)[48]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[49]
- Governors
- Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–2023)[50]
- U.S. Representatives
- Scott Perry, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2013–2019)[51]
- State Senators
- Camera Bartolotta, state senator from the 46th district (2015–present)
- Mike Regan, state senator from the 31st district (2017–present)[52]
- Guy Reschenthaler, state senator from the 37th district (2015–2019)
- Pat Stefano, state senator from the 32nd district (2015–present)
- Donald C. White, state senator from the 41st district (2001–2019)
- State Representatives
- Keith J. Gillespie, state representative from the 47th district (2003–present)[51]
- Seth Grove, state representative from the 196th district (2009–present)[51]
- Dawn Keefer, state representative from the 92nd district (2017–present)[51]
- Kate Klunk, state representative from the 169th district (2015–present)[51]
- Kristin Phillips-Hill, state representative from the 93rd district (2015–2019)[51]
- Stan Saylor, state representative from the 94th district (1993–2022)[51]
- County Commissioners
- Chris Reilly, York County Commissioner (1996–2020)[51]
- Individuals
- Diamond and Silk, social media personalities and political activists[53]
- Organizations
Tom Wolf (D)
- Federal officials
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017)[78]
- Eric Holder, 82nd United States Attorney General (2009–2015)[79]
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017)[80][81]
- Governors
- Ricardo Rosselló, Governor of Puerto Rico (2017–2019)[82]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dwight Evans, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district (2016–2019)[83]
- State Representatives
- Madeleine Dean, state representative from the 153rd district (2012–2018)[84]
- Brian Joseph Kirkland, state representative from the 159th district (2017–2022)[85]
- Leanne Krueger, state representative from the 161st district (2015–present)[86]
- Individuals
- Laura Gómez, actress[87]
- Kevin Hart, actor and comedian[88]
- Meek Mill, rapper[89]
- Tom Perez, Chair of the DNC (2017–2021)[90]
- Zachary Quinto, actor and film producer[91]
- Michael G. Rubin, businessman[92]
- Mary Gay Scanlon, former Member of the Wallingford-Swarthmore School Board[85]
- Wanda Sykes, actress[93]
- Organizations
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[98] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[99] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[100] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[101] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[102] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[103] | Safe D | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[104] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[105][a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[106] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[107] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tom Wolf (D) | Scott Wagner (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,833 | – | 53% | 42% | 3%[108] | – |
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | 1% | 6% |
| Muhlenberg College Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 421 | ± 5.5% | 58% | 37% | – | – |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 22–28, 2018 | 214 LV | ± 9.5% | 59% | 33% | – | 5% |
| 537 RV | ± 6.0% | 57% | 27% | 6%[109] | 10% | ||
| Morning Consult Archived October 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 1–2, 2018 | 1,188 | ± 3.0% | 48% | 36% | – | 16% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 17–23, 2018 | 204 LV | – | 52% | 30% | – | 17% |
| 545 RV | ± 6.1% | 52% | 28% | 2%[110] | 18% | ||
| Ipsos | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,080 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 6% |
| Muhlenberg College | September 13–19, 2018 | 404 | ± 5.5% | 55% | 36% | 6%[111] | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 12–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 40% | 3% | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 20–26, 2018 | 222 LV | – | 52% | 35% | 1% | 12% |
| 511 RV | ± 6.1% | 51% | 32% | 5%[112] | 14% | ||
| Marist College | August 12–16, 2018 | 713 | ± 4.2% | 54% | 40% | <1% | 6% |
| Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) | August 13–15, 2018 | 2,012 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 43% | 3% | 8% |
| Suffolk University Archived June 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 36% | 1% | 14% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | June 4–10, 2018 | 472 | ± 6.5% | 48% | 29% | 1% | 23% |
| Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 47% | 31% | 5% | 16% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 137 | ± 6.8% | 38% | 21% | 6% | 35% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Paul Mango
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tom Wolf (D) | Paul Mango (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 47% | 27% | 5% | 22% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 143 | ± 6.8% | 49% | 22% | 4% | 25% |
- with Laura Ellsworth
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tom Wolf (D) | Laura Ellsworth (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 46% | 26% | 4% | 24% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 143 | ± 6.8% | 51% | 22% | 2% | 25% |
Results
The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tom Wolf (incumbent) John Fetterman | 2,895,652 | 57.77% | +2.84% | |
| Republican | Scott Wagner Jeff Bartos | 2,039,882 | 40.70% | −4.37% | |
| Libertarian | Ken Krawchuk Kathleen Smith | 49,229 | 0.98% | N/A | |
| Green | Paul Glover Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick | 27,792 | 0.55% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 5,012,555 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
- Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
- Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)
- Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)
- Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
- Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
- Northumberland (largest borough: Sunbury)
- Schuylkill (largest city: Pottsville)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Cumberland (largest municipality: Carlisle)
By congressional district
Gov. Tom Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including 3 that elected Republicans.[114]
| District | Wagner | Wolf | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 40% | 59% | Brian Fitzpatrick |
| 2nd | 20% | 79% | Brendan Boyle |
| 3rd | 5% | 93% | Dwight Evans |
| 4th | 32% | 66% | Madeleine Dean |
| 5th | 29% | 69% | Mary Gay Scanlon |
| 6th | 37% | 61% | Chrissy Houlahan |
| 7th | 39% | 59% | Susan Wild |
| 8th | 43% | 56% | Matt Cartwright |
| 9th | 54% | 44% | Dan Meuser |
| 10th | 44% | 54% | Scott Perry |
| 11th | 53% | 45% | Lloyd Smucker |
| 12th | 59% | 39% | Tom Marino |
| 13th | 63% | 35% | John Joyce |
| 14th | 51% | 48% | Guy Reschenthaler |
| 15th | 60% | 38% | Glenn Thompson |
| 16th | 48.8% | 49.5% | Mike Kelly |
| 17th | 39% | 59% | Conor Lamb |
| 18th | 26% | 72% | Mike Doyle |
See also
References
External links
- Debates
- Official gubernatorial campaign websites
- Paul Glover (G) for Governor
- Ken Krawchuk (L) for Governor
- Scott Wagner (R) for Governor
- Tom Wolf (D) for Governor
- Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
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