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2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
← 2010November 4, 20142018 →
Turnout36.1%(Decrease5.6%)
 
NomineeTom WolfTom Corbett
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Running mateMike StackJim Cawley
Popular vote1,920,355 1,575,511
Percentage54.93%45.07%
Wolf:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Corbett:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
Governor before election

Tom Corbett
Republican

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Incumbent Governor Tom Corbett was defeated by Tom Wolf, [1] becoming the first incumbent Pennsylvania governor to lose re-election since William Bigler in 1854, and the first Republican to ever do so.[2][a] This was the only governorship Democrats flipped in the 2014 midterms. Wolf was sworn in on January 20, 2015, marking the most recent time the Pennsylvania governor's office changed partisan control.

Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track".[3] Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country,[4] The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch,[5] and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".

Democrats flipped the counties of Erie, Lawrence, Beaver, Alleghany, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Centre, Clinton, Northumberland, Dauphin, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Carbon, Schuylkill, Lehigh, Berks, Bucks, and Chester.

Meanwhile, this is the last time these counties have voted Democratic in a statewide election: Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill.

This is the first Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since 1982 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1934 this occurred during a Democratic administration. This also remains the last time that a Pennsylvania gubernatorial election has been decided by a single-digit margin, as Democrats have won each subsequent election by large double-digit margins.

Background

Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010.[6] This has been referred to as "the cycle",[7][8] but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860.[9] The last incumbent governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms.[10] Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.

Republican primary

Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot.[11] NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with "Re-Elect Tom Corbett" posted on his truck.

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Tom Corbett
Elected officials
Individuals
Others

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett		Bob
Guzzardi		Undecided
Gravis MarketingJanuary 22, 2014956± ?42%23%35%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett		Someone
else		Undecided
Gravis MarketingJanuary 22, 2014956± ?38%41%22%
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013491± 4.4%42%47%11%
Public Policy PollingMarch 8–10, 2013373± 5.1%37%49%13%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013490± 6%45%37%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett		Bruce
Castor		Jim
Gerlach		Mike
Kelly		Tom
Smith		Undecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013491± 4.4%42%—31%——26%
42%——31%—27%
Public Policy PollingMarch 8–10, 2013373± 5.1%43%23%———35%
37%———33%30%
Harper Polling Archived March 9, 2013, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 27–28, 2013±49.04%21.07%———29.89%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013490± 6%51%11%———38%

Results

Republican primary results[43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tom Corbett (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes373,465 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Robert McCord
Individuals
Organizations
Kathleen McGinty
Individuals
Organizations
Allyson Schwartz
Individuals
Organizations
Tom Wolf
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Hanger		Tom
Knox		Jo Ellen
Litz		Robert
McCord		Kathleen
McGinty		Max
Myers		Ed
Pawl-
owski		Allyson
Schwartz		Joe
Sestak		Tim
Solobay		Mike
Stack		Jack
Wagner		Tom
Wolf		OtherUnde-
cided
MuhlenbergMay 13–15, 2014414±5%———11%7%——16%————41%—25%
Harper Archived May 14, 2014, at the Wayback MachineMay 12–13, 2014559±4.14%———15%5%——15%————50%—16%
F&M CollegeMay 6–12, 2014530±4.3%———11%6%——19%————41%3%20%
MuhlenbergApril 28–30, 2014417±5%———13%3%——14%————42%—28%
GQR**Mar. 31–Apr. 3, 2014600±?———14%5%——12%————52%—16%
F&M CollegeMarch 25–31, 2014524±4.3%———8%6%——9%————40%6%31%
Harper Archived January 16, 2018, at the Wayback MachineFeb. 22–23, 2014501±4.38%7%——8%6%——14%———7%40%—19%
F&M CollegeFeb. 18–23, 2014548±4.2%1%——3%1%——9%————36%1%48%
PPPNov. 22–25, 2013436±4.7%8%—2%10%9%2%4%21%———17%2%—27%
Harper Archived November 13, 2013, at the Wayback MachineNov. 9–10, 2013649±3.85%7%——12%15%—6%22%————5%—34%
GHY^Aug. 27–29, 2013506± 4.4%———6%6%——25%————6%—57%
BSG* Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback MachineJuly 16–18, 2013800±3.46%———10%15%——34%————11%—30%
Quinnipiac Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback MachineMay 30–Jun. 4, 2013460± 4.6%1%——4%5%1%1%18%——1%—2%1%63%
QuinnipiacApril 19–24, 2013547± 4.2%0%——3%——1%15%15%—1%—3%2%60%
GSG Archived March 6, 2016, at the Wayback MachineMarch 9–12, 2013601± 4%1%——5%5%—3%18%15%3%1%—2%—47%
1%——7%7%—3%21%—3%2%—2%—54%
———12%———31%————7%—49%
GQR**March 2–7, 2013602±3.99%1%1%—7%3%——16%21%—2%—3%1%45%
Harper Archived March 9, 2013, at the Wayback MachineFeb. 27–28, 2013?±?0.82%2.88%—7%———18.52%19.75%———1.23%—49.79%
  • ** Internal poll for the Tom Wolf campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Kathleen McGinty campaign
  • * Internal poll for the Allyson Schwartz campaign

Results

Results by county:
  Wolf—80–90%
  Wolf—70–80%
  Wolf—60–70%
  Wolf—50–60%
  Wolf—40–50%
Democratic primary results[43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticTom Wolf 488,917 57.86%
DemocraticAllyson Schwartz149,02717.64%
DemocraticRob McCord142,31116.84%
DemocraticKatie McGinty64,7547.66%
Total votes845,009 100.00%

General election

Candidates

  • Tom Corbett (R), incumbent governor
  • Paul Glover (G), activist
  • Jonathan D. Jewell (I), Independent
  • Ken Krawchuk (L), technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2002
  • Tom Wolf (D), former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue

Debates

Spending

As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million.[111]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[112]Likely D (flip)November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[113]Safe D (flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[114]Likely D (flip)November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[115]Likely D (flip)November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Tom
Wolf (D)		OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg CollegeOctober 27–29, 2014409± 5%39%51%6%4%
Magellan StrategiesOctober 27–28, 20141,433± 2.6%43%50%—7%
Harper Polling Archived February 8, 2016, at the Wayback MachineOctober 26–27, 2014680± 3.76%40%50%—10%
Franklin & MarshallOctober 20–26, 2014326 LV± 5.1%40%53%1%5%
738 RV± 3.4%37%53%1%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20143,111± 3%39%52%0%8%
Magellan StrategiesOctober 13–14, 20141,131± 2.9%42%49%—9%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 30 – October 5, 2014907± 3.3%38%55%2%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 20143,283± 2%41%50%0%9%
Robert Morris UniversitySeptember 26–29, 2014500± 4%34%57%—9%
Mercyhurst UniversitySeptember 15–24, 2014479± 4.48%28%43%2%27%
Franklin & MarshallSeptember 15–22, 2014231 LV± 6.4%37%57%2%5%
520 RV± 4.3%33%54%4%9%
Magellan Strategies Archived September 26, 2014, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 17–18, 20141,120± 2.9%40%49%—11%
Muhlenberg CollegeSeptember 16–18, 2014429± 5%33%54%4%9%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 3–8, 20141,161± 2.9%35%59%2%4%
Harper Polling Archived January 10, 2016, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 2–3, 2014665± 3.2%41%52%—7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18 – September 2, 20143,560± 2%39%50%2%10%
Robert Morris UniversityAugust 18–22, 2014500± 4.5%25%56%—20%
Franklin & MarshallAugust 18–25, 2014520± 4.3%24%49%1%25%
Magellan Strategies Archived September 12, 2014, at the Wayback MachineJuly 30–31, 20141,214± 2.83%38%50%—12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20144,150± ?39%52%2%7%
Franklin & MarshallJune 23–29, 2014502± 4.4%25%47%1%27%
Quinnipiac UniversityMay 29 – June 2, 20141,308± 2.7%33%53%1%13%
Public Policy PollingMay 30 – June 1, 2014835± 3.4%30%55%—15%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 27–28, 2014750± 4%31%51%4%14%
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%33%52%1%13%
Gravis MarketingJanuary 22–23, 2014717± 4%34%41%—24%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback MachineDecember 11–16, 20131,061± 3%37%44%1%19%
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%32%44%—24%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%39%39%2%20%
Public Policy PollingMarch 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%33%42%—25%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%29%—30%
Hypothetical polling
With Corbett
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		John
Hanger (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%37%40%4%20%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback MachineDecember 11–16, 20131,061± 3%42%37%2%19%
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%32%51%—16%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%42%41%2%15%
Public Policy PollingMarch 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%34%41%—25%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%37%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Kathleen
Kane (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%42%42%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Tom
Knox (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%40%39%1%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Robert
McCord (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%36%43%4%17%
Gravis MarketingJanuary 22–23, 2014717± 4%36%48%—16%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback MachineDecember 11–16, 20131,061± 3%39%42%2%18%
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%31%50%—18%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback MachineMay 30–June 4, 20131,032± 3.1%35%43%1%20%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 19–24, 20131,235± 2.8%35%44%1%20%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%42%38%1%19%
Public Policy PollingMarch 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%34%45%—21%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%35%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Kathleen
McGinty (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%38%40%3%18%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback MachineDecember 11–16, 20131,061± 3%37%44%1%18%
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%32%47%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Michael
Nutter (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%38%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Ed
Pawlowski (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback MachineDecember 11–16, 20131,061± 3%39%41%2%18%
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%33%45%—22%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%38%44%2%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Ed
Rendell (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%40%46%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Allyson
Schwartz (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%38%44%3%15%
Gravis MarketingJanuary 22–23, 2014717± 4%35%44%—21%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback MachineDecember 11–16, 20131,061± 3%37%45%1%16%
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%33%48%—20%
Benenson Strategy Group Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback MachineAugust 6–8, 2013600± 4%41%49%—10%
Quinnipiac University Archived June 13, 2013, at the Wayback MachineMay 30–June 4, 20131,032± 3.1%35%45%1%19%
Public Opinion Strategies Archived March 5, 2016, at the Wayback MachineApril 30–May 2, 2013600± 4%34%46%—20%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 19–24, 20131,235± 2.8%34%47%2%17%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%39%42%1%18%
Public Policy PollingMarch 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%34%45%—21%
Benenson Strategy GroupJanuary 15–17, 2013600± 4%42%50%—9%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%34%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Joe
Sestak (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 19–24, 20131,235± 2.8%34%48%1%17%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%38%47%1%14%
Public Policy PollingMarch 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%34%45%—21%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%42%36%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Mike
Stack (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%39%40%1%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Jack
Wagner (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University Archived February 27, 2014, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%37%44%3%15%
Quinnipiac University Archived December 20, 2013, at the Wayback MachineDecember 11–16, 20131,061± 3%36%48%1%15%
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%30%50%—20%
With Gerlach
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jim
Gerlach (R)		Allyson
Schwartz (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%31%39%—29%
With Guzzardi
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Guzzardi (R)		Robert
McCord (D)		OtherUndecided
Gravis MarketingJanuary 22–23, 2014717± 4%31%43%—26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Guzzardi (R)		Allyson
Schwartz (D)		OtherUndecided
Gravis MarketingJanuary 22–23, 2014717± 4%33%42%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Guzzardi (R)		Tom
Wolf (D)		OtherUndecided
Gravis MarketingJanuary 22–23, 2014717± 4%30%38%—31%
With Kelly
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Kelly (R)		Allyson
Schwartz (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%33%41%—27%

Results

2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election[116]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticTom Wolf
Mike Stack 		1,920,355 54.93% +9.42%
RepublicanTom Corbett (incumbent)
Jim Cawley (incumbent)		1,575,51145.07%-9.42%
Total votes3,495,866 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Corbett won 10 of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf, though at the time most of the districts were gerrymanders drawn by Republican legislators.[117] Wolf won the 6th, 7th and 8th districts, which all elected Republicans to the House.

DistrictCorbettWolfRepresentative
1st16%84%Bob Brady
2nd8%92%Chaka Fattah
3rd54%46%Mike Kelly
4th56%44%Scott Perry
5th51%49%Glenn Thompson
6th49%51%Jim Gerlach
Ryan Costello
7th48%52%Patrick Meehan
8th48%52%Mike Fitzpatrick
9th55%45%Bill Shuster
10th59%41%Tom Marino
11th53%47%Lou Barletta
12th53%47%Keith Rothfus
13th30%70%Brendan Boyle
14th30%70%Mike Doyle
15th50%50%Charlie Dent
16th54%46%Joe Pitts
17th39%61%Matt Cartwright
18th54%46%Tim Murphy

See also

Notes

References

Official campaign websites
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