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2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election

A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013.[1] Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014.[2] Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote.[3] With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner.

2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election
← 2012March 11, 20142014 →
Florida's 13th congressional district
 
NomineeDavid JollyAlex Sink
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote89,16785,673
Percentage48.5%46.6%
County results
Jolly:      40–50%
U.S. Representative before election

Bill Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

David Jolly
Republican

Background

On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died nine days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a bellwether for the fall 2014 elections.[4][5] While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans.[6]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Bircher
Politicians
David Jolly
Politicians
Others
Organizations
Newspapers
Kathleen Peters
Politicians
Others
  • Bill Young II, son of Bill Young[7]
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Bircher		David
Jolly		Kathleen
Peters		Undecided
St. Pete PollsJanuary 9, 2014653± 3.8%26.3%36.5%23.9%13.3%
Gravis MarketingJanuary 8, 2014976± 3%25%34%28%14%
St. Pete PollsDecember 30, 2013488± 4.4%17.7%39.4%27.7%15.1%
St. Pete PollsDecember 18, 2013660± 3.8%16.1%34.9%30.2%18.9%
St. Pete PollsDecember 3, 2013534± 4.2%17.2%27.8%27.1%28.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker		Neil
Brickfield		Larry
Crow		Frank
Hibbard		David
Jolly		Kathleen
Peters		Karen
Seel		OtherUndecided
St. Pete PollsNovember 18, 2013582± 4.1%————39.2%17.3%—30.9%12.6%
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 2013498± 4.4%—16.8%—15%18.7%——28.7%20.8%
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 2013742± 3.6%51%7%4%—2%—10%27%—

Results

Republican primary results[37]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDavid Jolly 20,493 45
RepublicanKathleen Peters14,23431
RepublicanMark Bircher11,24224
Total votes45,810 100

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Alex Sink
Politicians
  • Joseph Barkley, Belleair Bluffs city council member[42]
  • Nancy Besore, Safety Harbor Commissioner[43]
  • Kathy Castor, U.S. Representative[44]
  • Dwight Dudley, state representative[42]
  • Rene Flowers, Pinellas County School Board member[42]
  • Amy Foster, St. Petersburg City Council member[43]
  • Michael Fridovich, Gulfport City Council member[43]
  • Patricia Gerard, Mayor of Largo[42]
  • Samuel Henderson, Mayor of Gulfport[43]
  • Lorraine Huhn, Vice Mayor of St. Pete Beach[43]
  • Robert Jackson, former Mayor of Largo[42]
  • Charlie Justice, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Steve Kornell, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Linda Lerner, Pinellas County School Board member[42]
  • Janet C. Long, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Jack Nazario, Belleair Bluffs Commissioner[43]
  • Karl Nurse, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Carlen Petersen, former Clearwater City Council member[43]
  • Patricia Plantamura, Seminole City Council member[42]
  • Jim Quinn, Seminole City Council member[43]
  • Darryl Rouson, state representative[42]
  • Mike Smith, Largo City Council member[42]
  • Ken Welch, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Carl Zimmermann, state representative[42]
Organisations

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jessica
Ehrlich		Alex
Sink		OtherUndecided
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 2013367± 5.1%10.6%69.6%10.7%9.1%
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 2013706± 3.7%20%63%10%7%

General election

Candidates

One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC.[47]

Debates

David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators.[48] The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.

A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%.[49]

Campaign spending

During the campaign, OpenSecrets reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history.[50]

The Associated Press reports that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by 3 to 1 on television ads as well as outspending him overall.[51]

Endorsements

David Jolly
Politicians
Others
Organizations
Newspapers
Lucas Overby
Politicians
Alex Sink
Politicians
  • Joseph Barkley, Belleair Bluffs city council member[42]
  • Nancy Besore, Safety Harbor Commissioner[43]
  • Kathy Castor, U.S. Representative[44]
  • Dwight Dudley, state representative[42]
  • Rene Flowers, Pinellas County School Board member[42]
  • Amy Foster, St. Petersburg City Council member[43]
  • Michael Fridovich, Gulfport City Council member[43]
  • Patricia Gerard, Mayor of Largo[42]
  • Samuel Henderson, Mayor of Gulfport[43]
  • Lorraine Huhn, Vice Mayor of St. Pete Beach[43]
  • Robert Jackson, former Mayor of Largo[42]
  • Charlie Justice, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Steve Kornell, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Susan Latvala, Republican Pinellas County Commissioner[59]
  • Linda Lerner, Pinellas County School Board member[42]
  • Janet C. Long, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Jack Nazario, Belleair Bluffs Commissioner[43]
  • Karl Nurse, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Carlen Petersen, former Clearwater City Council member[43]
  • Patricia Plantamura, Seminole City Council member[42]
  • Jim Quinn, Seminole City Council member[43]
  • Darden Rice, St. Petersburg City Council member[42]
  • Darryl Rouson, state representative[42]
  • Mike Smith, Largo City Council member[42]
  • Ken Welch, Pinellas County Commissioner[42]
  • Carl Zimmermann, state representative[42]
Organisations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Jolly (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Lucas
Overby (L)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 7–9, 2014702± 3.7%45%48%6%2%
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc.February 25–27, 2014391± 6%46%44%5%5%
St. Pete PollsFebruary 25, 20141,269± 2.8%45.6%45.9%6.4%2.1%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesFebruary 17–18, 2014400± 4.9%44%42%—14%
St. Pete PollsFebruary 12, 20141,130± 2.9%46.2%44%6.6%2.4%
St. Leo UniversityFebruary 9–11, 2014400± 5%37%46%12%5%
Braun ResearchFebruary 4–9, 2014603± 4%35%42%4%14%
DCCCJanuary 24, 2014527± 4.3%45%49%—6%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJanuary 16–19, 2014400± 4.9%43%38%4%15%
St. Pete PollsJanuary 15, 20141,278± 2.7%47%42.8%4.4%5.9%
St. Pete PollsDecember 3, 20131,128± 2.9%36.3%49%5.6%8.8%
St. Pete PollsNovember 18, 20131,252± 2.8%34.9%49.3%—15.7%
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 20131,079± 3%31%51.5%—17.5%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker (R)		Jessica
Ehrlich (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 20131,741± 2.3%34.6%30.7%34.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 20131,741± 2.3%34.0%50.8%15.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Bircher (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsDecember 3, 20131,128± 2.9%30.2%50.4%12.1%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Neil
Brickfield (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 20131,079± 3%30.1%51.2%18.8%
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 20131,741± 2.3%24.0%56.6%19.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Frank
Hibbard (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 20131,079± 3%30.7%51.6%17.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kathleen
Peters (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsDecember 3, 20131,128± 2.9%34.6%47.7%12.2%
St. Pete PollsNovember 18, 20131,252± 2.8%30.7%49.7%19.6%

Results

Florida's 13th congressional district, 2014 (special) [61]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDavid Jolly 89,167 48.52% -9.05%
DemocraticAlex Sink85,67346.62%+4.19%
LibertarianLucas Overby8,9194.86%N/A
n/aMichael S. Levinson (write-in)130.00%N/A
Total votes'183,772' '100.0%' N/A
Republican hold

References

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