2011 Manitoba general election

The 2011 Manitoba general election was held to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. It took place on October 4, 2011, due to the new fixed-date election laws. In the outgoing legislature, the New Democratic Party of Manitoba (NDP) held 37 of the 57 seats, the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba (PC Party) held 19 of the 57 seats and the Liberal Party of Manitoba held one of the 57 seats, after Kevin Lamoureux resigned his seat in the riding of Inkster to run as a Liberal candidate in a federal by-election.[1]

2011 Manitoba general election

← 2007October 4, 2011 (2011-10-04)2016 →

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout55.77%
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
LeaderGreg SelingerHugh McFadyenJon Gerrard
PartyNew DemocraticProgressive ConservativeLiberal
Leader sinceOctober 17, 2009April 29, 2006October 17, 1998
Leader's seatSt. BonifaceFort WhyteRiver Heights
Last election36 seats, 48.00%19 seats, 37.89%2 seats, 12.39%
Seats won37191
Seat changeIncrease1SteadyDecrease1
Popular vote199,066188,52832,420
Percentage46.16%43.71%7.52%
SwingDecrease1.84%Increase5.97%Decrease4.60%

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.

Premier before election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Premier after election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Following the last census, electoral district boundaries were adjusted. There are 57 electoral districts.

Despite being perceived as a tight race in the run-up to voting, with The Globe and Mail expecting it to be the "closest in more than a decade",[2] the NDP won its fourth consecutive term in government, taking 37 seats, an improvement of one from the 2007 election – thus gaining their largest majority ever in the Assembly – whilst the Progressive Conservatives failed to make any gains beyond closing the gap in the popular vote, and not a single incumbent was defeated.[3] The PC leader Hugh McFadyen announced shortly thereafter that he would resign his post. Also facing a disappointing result in the election, Liberal leader Jon Gerrard also announced shortly after the election that he would resign his post once the party crowned a new leader in 2013.[4]

Party leadership

The Green Party and the NDP have chosen new leaders since the last general election.

On August 27, 2009 Premier Gary Doer, after being Premier of Manitoba for ten years announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the NDP. The following day he was appointed Canada's Ambassador to the United States.[5][6]

Three candidates entered the campaign to replace Doer: Steve Ashton, Greg Selinger and Andrew Swan. On September 28, 2009, Swan bowed out of the race and endorsed Selinger. Some pundits believe this was an attempt to stop Steve Ashton from becoming leader.[7]

Ashton, first seen as a minor candidate, ended up being a heavy-weight and, gaining momentum, scored big victories in some ridings, however it wasn't enough to convince many MLAs or win union endorsement. Selinger won the leadership election on October 17, 2009 with 65.75% of the ballot. His victory was achieved in large part by being backed by unions and the vast majority of the party elite.[6][8]

2009 New Democratic Party of Manitoba leadership election
CandidateVotesPercentage
Greg Selinger1,31765.75%
Steve Ashton68534.20%
Spoiled ballots10.05%
Total2,003100.00%

The Green Party elected James Beddome to a two-year term party leader on November 15, 2008, defeating incumbent Andrew Basham and third candidate Shane Nestruck. After his victory, he said that he would work toward running a full slate of candidates in the next provincial election. He was the party's candidate for a by-election in the northeast Winnipeg division of Elmwood in early 2009.

Election summary

Summary of the October 4, 2011 Manitoba Legislature election
PartyParty leaderCandidatesSeatsPopular vote
2007Dissol.2011% Change#%% Change
 New DemocraticGreg Selinger57363637+2.78%199,06946.16−1.84
 Progressive ConservativeHugh McFadyen571918190.00%188,53543.71+5.97
 LiberalJon Gerrard57211−50.00%32,4187.52−4.60
GreenJames Beddome3200010,8862.52+1.18
CommunistDarrell Rankin40001790.04-0.05
 Independent10002150.05-0.25
 Vacant2
Total Valid Votes208575757431,30255.77%-0.98%
Popular vote
New Democratic
46.16%
PC
43.71%
Liberal
7.52%
Green
2.52%
Others
0.09%
Seat Count
New Democratic
64.91%
PC
33.33%
Liberal
1.75%

Turnout

Of 777,054 registered voters, 55.77% or 433,346 cast votes in the election.[9] Although this is slightly lower than the 2007 election, voter turnout in Manitoba has generally declined since the mid-1970s when it reached 78.3% in the 1973 general election.[10] About 78,500 voters took advantage of advance polls, more than any previous election.[11]

Marginal seats

The following is a list of the ten ridings most narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2007 election (by percentage of the vote the indicated party lost by).

New boundaries are in effect for the 2011 election, so some ridings not listed may come into place in the next election with population movements.

New DemocraticProgressive Conservative
  1. River East (PC), 0.56% (held)
  2. Brandon West (PC), 0.56% (held)
  3. Portage la Prairie (PC), 5.91% (held)
  1. Kirkfield Park (NDP), 11.22% (held)
  2. Southdale (NDP), 11.30% (held)
  3. Dauphin-Roblin (NDP), 12.12% (held)
  4. La Verendrye (NDP), 12.47% (won)
LiberalGreen
  1. Fort Rouge (NDP), 16.44% (held)
  1. Wolseley (NDP), 51.82% (held)

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

New Democrats
Progressives Conservatives

Resigned

Liberals

Election campaign

Election signs for the major parties in the riding of The Maples.

Issues

Bipole III

Manitoba Hydro planned an alternative hydro-electric transmission line to Bipole I and II routes running through the Interlake region in Manitoba. Initially it planned a more easterly route to the east of Lake Winnipeg. The NDP ignored the expert opinion of Manitoba Hydro and decided to build the line on the west side of the province at a cost of $4.1 billion. Further, the NDP proposed the creation of a large UNESCO environmental heritage site named Pimachiowin Aki. Just days before his retirement as premier, Doer announced that the government would donate $10 million to the trust fund for UNESCO World Heritage site on the east side of Lake Winnipeg.[24] The NDP claimed that an east side Bipole III route would jeopardise the UNESCO site and claimed that a heritage site would benefit First Nations communities more.[25] The NDP proposed a longer, more expensive, alternative route through the west of Manitoba to preserve the environmental integrity of the east side. Subject to the Environmental Impact Statement to be completed in June 2011, the construction of the line will begin in the winter of 2012, one year after the election.[26]

Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen opposes the western route stating that it would cost $1 billion to $1.75 billion more, it would destroy more trees, 15 out of 16 First Nations believed the Bipole III would be more economically beneficial, and would be more at risk from disasters as the Bipole lines in the Interlake.[25] McFadyen promised that if elected he would cancel the western route, and build it down the east side.[27] McFadyen also supported the UNESCO site on the east side and claims that Bipole III would not jeopardise the World Heritage Site.[24][25]

Liberal leader Jon Gerrard proposed that instead of building the line down the east or west, Manitoba Hydro should put the cable under Lake Winnipeg as proposed by Dr. John Ryan, retired University of Winnipeg professor in 2008.[28] In the fall of 2010 Gerrard asked Manitoba Hydro CEO Bob Brennan if he had inquired into the Lake Winnipeg route. Brennan said that he had not. Gerrard promised to build the line through Lake Winnipeg if elected.[29]

Opinion polls

Polling firmLast date
of polling
LinkNDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Angus Reid Public OpinionSeptember 30 – October 2, 2011[p 1]4643830
Probe Research IncSeptember 21–28, 2011[p 2]464374
EnvironicsSeptember 26, 2011[p 3]424510
Viewpoints ResearchSeptember 14–21, 2011[p 4]41325
Probe Research IncJune 29, 2011[p 5]444493
Probe Research IncMarch 23, 2011[p 6]3547144
Probe Research IncNovember 25–Dec. 12, 2010[p 7]3842155
Angus Reid Public OpinionNovember 7–15, 2010[p 8]37461341
Probe Research IncSeptember 30, 2010[p 9]4042126
Angus Reid Public OpinionSeptember 21, 2010[p 10]34491241
Viewpoints ResearchSeptember 15, 2010[p 11]39381481
Probe Research IncJuly 3, 2010[p 12]4140136
Angus Reid Public OpinionJune 10, 2010[p 13]36481231
Probe Research IncMarch 29, 2010[p 14]42391180
Angus Reid Public OpinionMarch 18, 2010[p 15]37441333
Probe Research IncDecember 2009[p 16]47371141
Probe Research IncSeptember 2009[p 17]4538125
Probe Research IncJuly 2009[p 17]4536145
EnvironicsJune 2009[p 18]433522
EnvironicsApril 2009[p 18]4937122
Probe Research IncMarch 2009[p 17]4636135
Probe Research IncDecember 2008[p 17]4143106
Probe Research IncSeptember 2008[p 17]4339135
Probe Research IncJune 2008[p 17]4636135
Probe Research IncMarch 2008[p 17]4638133
Election 2007May 22, 2007

48.00%

37.89%12.39%1.34%0.39%
Polling firmLast date
of polling
LinkOther
NDPPCLiberalGreen

Leadership approval rating

Polling FirmDate of PollingLinkGreg SelingerHugh McFadyenJon Gerrard
Probe Research IncJuly 3, 2010[1]494135
Disapproval rating222629

Candidates by riding

  • Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.

Northern Manitoba

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Flin FlonClarence Pettersen
1,901 (57.10%)
Darcy Linklater
791 (23.76%)
Thomas Heine
510 (15.31%)
Saara Harvie
110 (3.30%)
Gerard Jennissen
KewatinookEric Robinson
2,043 (56.79%)
Michael Birch
1,389 (38.61%)
Orville Woodford
49 (1.36%)
Philip Green
94 (2.61%)
Eric Robinson
Swan RiverRon Kostyshyn
4,280 (55.81%)
Dave Powell
3,078 (40.14%)
Reynald Cook
264 (3.44%)
Rosann Wowchuk
The PasFrank Whitehead
2,995 (73.20%)
Alfred McDonald
959 (23.44%)
Girma Tessema
115 (2.81%)
Frank Whitehead
ThompsonSteve Ashton
2,586 (68.19%)
Anita Campbell
1,068 (28.16%)
Ken Dillen
120 (3.16%)
Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
AgassizAmity Sagness
1,058 (17.13%)
Stu Briese
4,390 (71.09%)
Gary Sallows
410 (6.64%)
Kate Storey
317 (5.13%)
New District
Arthur-VirdenGarry Draper
2,274 (30.18%)
Larry Maguire
4,975 (66.03%)
Murray Cliff
286 (3.80%)
Larry Maguire
Brandon EastDrew Caldwell
3,533 (54.77%)
Mike Waddell
2,513 (38.75%)
Shaun Cameron
280 (4.23%)
Vanda Fleury
158 (2.45%)
Drew Caldwell
Brandon WestJim Murray
4,073 (46.98%)
Reg Helwer
4,219 (48.66%)
George Buri
378 (4.36%)
Rick Borotsik
DauphinStan Struthers
4,470 (54.91%)
Lloyd McKinney
3,351 (41.17%)
Sisay Tessema
123 (1.51%)
Tamela Friesen
196 (2.41%)
New District
Riding MountainAlbert Parsons
2,604 (34.26%)
Leanne Rowat
4,461 (58.69%)
Carl Hyde
270 (3.55%)
Signe Knutson
266 (3.50%)
New District
Spruce WoodsCory Szczepanski
1,923 (28.58%)
Cliff Cullen
4,487 (66.69%)
Trenton Zazalak
318 (4.73%)


New District

Central Manitoba

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
EmersonLorie Fiddler
1,082 (19.76%)
Cliff Graydon
3,983 (72.72%)
Micheline Belliveau
412 (7.52%)
Cliff Graydon
GimliPeter Bjornson
5,004 (51.79%)
Jeff Wharton
4,154 (42.99%)
Lawrence Einarsson
195 (2.02%)
Glenda Whiteman
309 (3.20%)
Peter Bjornson
InterlakeTom Nevakshonoff
3,359 (50.47%)
Steve Lupky
2,899 (43.56%)
Albert Ratt
184 (2.76%)
John Zasitko
213 (3.20%)
Tom Nevakshonoff
LakesideRosemary Hnatiuk
1,956 (25.71%)
Ralph Eichler
5,036 (66.20%)
Jerald Funk
246 (3.23%)
Betty Kehler
369 (4.85%)
Ralph Eichler
MidlandJacqueline Theroux
1,746 (23.64%)
Blaine Pedersen
5,133 (69.50%)
Leah Jeffers
507 (6.86%)

New District
Morden-WinklerAaron McDowell
656 (11.43%)
Cameron Friesen
4,912 (85.56%)
Daniel Woldeyohanis
173 (3.01%)

New District
MorrisMohamed Alli
1,480 (19.33%)
Mavis Taillieu
5,669 (74.06%)
Janelle Mailhot
506 (6.61%)
Mavis Taillieu
Portage la PrairieJames Kostuchuk
2,689 (39.39%)
Ian Wishart
3,556 (52.24%)
Michelle Cudmore-Armstrong
571 (8.37%)
David Faurschou

Eastman

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Dawson TrailRon Lemieux
4,284 (52.51%)
Laurent Tetrault
3,554 (43.56%)
Sandra Hoskins
321 (3.93%)
New District
Lac du BonnetElana Spence
2,853 (36.74%)
Wayne Ewasko
4,266 (54.94%)
Charlett Millen
351 (4.52%)
Dan Green
295 (3.80%)
Vacant
La VerendryeMaurice Tallaire
1,823 (25.94%)
Dennis Smook
4,480 (63.75%)
Monica Guetre
372 (5.31%)
Janine Gibson
351 (5.00%)

Ron Lemieux
SteinbachDally Gutierrez
487 (7.62%)
Kelvin Goertzen
5,469 (85.52%)
Lee Fehler
439 (6.86%)

Kelvin Goertzen
St. PaulCynthia Ryan
3,479 (37.40%)
Ron Schuler
5,547 (59.63%)
Ludolf Grollé
276 (2.97%)
New District
SelkirkGreg Dewar
3,882 (56.35%)
David Bell
2,703 (39.24%)
Marilyn Courchene
304 (4.41%)
Greg Dewar

Northwest Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
BurrowsMelanie Wight
3,063 (59.35%)
Rick Negrych
1,314 (25.58%)
Twyla Motkaluk
629 (12.18%)
Garett Peepeetch
124 (2.29%)
Frank Komarniski (CPC-M)
32 (0.61%)
Doug Martindale
KildonanDave Chomiak
4,808 (59.52%)
Darrell Penner
2,880 (35.65%)
Dimitrius Sagriotis
391 (4.83%)

Dave Chomiak
Point DouglasKevin Chief
3,806 (73.50%)
John Vernaus
917 (17.95%)
Mary Lou Bourgeois
257 (4.51%)
Teresa Pun
176 (3.32%)
Darrell Rankin (CPC-M)
38 (0.71%)
George Hickes
St. JohnsGord Mackintosh
4,157 (65.93%)
Ray Larkin
1,405 (22.40%)
Trevor Mueller
348 (5.48%)
Alon Weinberg
392 (6.20%)
Gord Mackintosh
The MaplesMohinder Saran
3,894 (51.8%)
Jose Tomas
1,943 (25.9%)
Pablito Sarinas
1,395 (18.57%)
John Redekopp
281 (3.73%)
Mohinder Saran
Tyndall ParkTed Marcelino
2,596 (44.93%)
Cris Aglugub
908 (15.79%)
Roldan Sevillano
2,007 (34.94%)
Dean Koshelanyk
237 (4.34%)

New District

Northeast Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
ConcordiaMatt Wiebe
4,008 (62.72%)
Naseer Warraich
1,803 (28.21%)
Isaiah Oyeleru
237 (3.70%)
Ryan Poirier
308 (4.82%)
Matt Wiebe
ElmwoodJim Maloway
3,864 (54.14%)
David Hutten
2,399 (33.61%)
Anthony Dratowany
467 (6.54%)
Ray Eskritt
346 (4.84%)
Bill Blaikie
RadissonBidhu Jha
5,033 (54.94%)
Desmond Penner
3,588 (39.17%)
Shirley Robert
506 (5.52%)
Bidhu Jha
River EastKurt Penner
4,512 (43.92%)
Bonnie Mitchelson
5,247 (51.07%)
Christopher Pelda
188 (1.83%)
Kelly Mitchell
274 (2.66%)
Bonnie Mitchelson
RossmereErna Braun
5,392 (56.37%)
Kaur Sidhu
3,430 (35.86%)
Rene Belliveau
356 (3.72%)
Evan Maydaniuk
351 (3.67%)
Erna Braun
St. BonifaceGreg Selinger
5,914 (68.56%)
Frank Clark
1,537 (17.82%)
Brad Gross
606 (7.02%)
Alain Landry
530 (6.14%)
Greg Selinger
TransconaDaryl Reid
4,488 (57.92%)
Craig Stapon
2,668 (34.43%)
Faye McLeod-Jashyn
551 (7.11%)
Daryl Reid

West Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
AssiniboiaJim Rondeau
5,093 (58.22%)
Susan Auch
3,258 (37.24%)
Moe Bokhari
194 (2.22%)
Anlina Sheng
203 (2.32%)
Jim Rondeau
CharleswoodPaul Beckta
2,597 (30.05%)
Myrna Driedger
4,826 (55.84%)
Matthew Ostrove
751 (8.69%)
Dirk Hoeppner
469 (5.83%)
Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield ParkSharon Blady
4,900 (46.80%)
Kelly de Groot
4,871 (46.52%)
Syed Bokhari
363 (3.47%)
Alanna Gray
337 (3.22%)
Sharon Blady
St. JamesDeanne Crothers
4,411 (49.75%)
Scott Gillingham
3,403 (38.38%)
Gerard Allard
679 (7.66%)
Trevor Vandale
374 (4.22%)
Bonnie Korzeniowski
TuxedoDashi Zargani
2,319 (25.35%)
Heather Stefanson
4,829 (52.79%)
Linda Minuk
1,509 (16.5%)
Donald Benham
491 (5.36%)
Heather Stefanson

Central Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Fort Garry-RiverviewJames Allum
5,137 (55.52%)
Ian Rabb
3,054 (33.01%)
Kevin Freedman
663 (7.17%)
Daniel Backé
398 (4.30%)
New District
Fort RougeJennifer Howard
4,493 (51.27%)
Sonny Dominique
1,767 (20.16%)
Paul Hesse
2,026 (23.12%)
Stephen Weedon
477 (5.44%)

Jennifer Howard
LoganFlor Marcelino
2,943 (58.91%)
Tyrone Krawetz
838 (16.77%)
Joe Chan
845 (16.91%)
Kristen Andrews
324 (6.49%)
David Tymoshchuk (CPC-M)
46 (0.92%)
New District
MintoAndrew Swan
3,569 (66.26%)
Belinda Squance
830 (15.41%)
Don Woodstock
602 (11.18%)
Harold Dyck
330 (6.13%)
Cheryl-Anne Carr (CPC-M)
55 (1.02%)
Andrew Swan
River HeightsDan Manning
1,835 (17.76%)
Marty Morantz
3,384 (32.76%)
Jon Gerrard
4,742 (45.91%)
Elizabeth May Cameron
369 (3.57%)
Jon Gerrard
WolseleyRob Altemeyer
4,193 (60.68%)
Harpreet Turka
847 (12.26%)
Eric Stewart
506 (7.32%)
James Beddome
1,364 (19.74%)
Rob Altemeyer

South Winnipeg

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenOther
Fort RichmondKerri Irvin-Ross
4,026 (53.15%)
Shaun McCaffrey
2,908 (38.39%)
Dustin Hiles
369 (4.87%)
Caitlin McIntyre
226 (2.98%)
New District
Fort WhyteSunny Dhaliwal
2,655 (29.49%)
Hugh McFadyen
5,594 (62.13%)
Chae Tsai
710 (7.88%)
Hugh McFadyen
RielChristine Melnick
5,352 (54.69%)
Rochelle Squires
3,916 (40.01%)
Cheryl Gilarski
480 (4.90%)
Christine Melnick
Seine RiverTheresa Oswald
5,500 (52.88%)
Gord Steeves
4,569 (43.93%)
Troy Osiname
295 (2.83%)
Theresa Oswald
SouthdaleErin Selby
5,662 (51.84%)
Judy Eastman
4,898 (44.84%)
Amarjit Singh
327 (2.99%)
Erin Selby
St. NorbertDave Gaudreau
3,966 (44.94%)
Karen Velthuys
3,935 (44.58%)
Marcel Laurendeau
883 (10.00%)
Marilyn Brick
St. VitalNancy Allan
5,023 (59.80%)
Mike Brown
2,876 (34.24%)
Harry Wolbert
461 (5.48%)
Nancy Allan

By-elections since 2011

Manitoba provincial by-election, April 22, 2015: The Pas
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New DemocraticAmanda Lathlin1,55756.47-16.74
 Progressive ConservativeJacob Nasekapow81729.63+6.18
LiberalInez Vystrcil-Spence36913.38+10.56
Total valid votes2,743100.00
Rejected and declined votes14
Turnout2,75722.10
Electors on the lists12,475
New Democratic holdSwing
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Arthur-Virden
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
 Progressive ConservativeDoyle Piwniuk3,13768.20+2.23
LiberalFloyd Buhler73816.04+12.23
New DemocraticBob Senff48010.43-19.78
GreenKate Storey2455.33
Total valid votes4,600100.00
Rejected and declined votes10
Turnout4,61033.55
Electors on the lists13,739
Progressive Conservative holdSwing-5.00
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Morris
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
 Progressive ConservativeShannon Martin2,64269.99-4.01
New DemocraticDean Harder48812.93-6.44
LiberalJeremy Barber42211.18+4.55
 IndependentRay Shaw1383.66-
GreenAlain Landry852.25-
Total valid votes3,775
Rejected and declined votes17
Turnout3,79227.51
Electors on the lists13,782
Progressive Conservative holdSwing+1.21
Manitoba provincial by-election, September 4, 2012
Resignation of Hugh McFadyen: Fort Whyte
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Progressive ConservativeBrian Pallister3,62655.14-6.99
LiberalBob Axworthy2,06931.47+23.59
New DemocraticBonny Schmidt73911.24-18.25
GreenDonnie H.J Benham1131.73+1.73
IndependentDarrell Ackman190.03+0.03
Spoiled/rejected votes 10 * *
turnout 41.64 * *
Total valid votes 6,576100.00 [30]

References

Opinion poll sources